As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 66.0% in Bank of Russia decision in December? — $24.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 66.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +23.5 pts.
Since September 14, 2026, No change has traded between 33.0% and 67.0%. It opened at 33.5% and last traded at 66.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 66.5% |
No change is favored at 66.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 66¢ | 66.0% | +3.0 pts | $10.5K | 42.5% |
| 25 bps decrease | 22¢ | 22.5% | -0.5 pts | $8.4K | 34.0% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 5¢ | 5.3% | -2.6 pts | $2.0K | 8.2% |
| 25 bps increase | 4¢ | 4.4% | +1.5 pts | $1.7K | 6.8% |
| 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 3.0% | +1.0 pts | $2.1K | 8.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.6K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 18, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,908 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 3,908 | $2.6K |
| Fancy-Satire | No | 2,073 | $705 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,453 | $494 |
| Glittering-Pitcher | Yes | 376 | $248 |
| Known-Use | No | 225 | $76 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 217 | $74 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 154 | $52 |
| Subdued-Revenant | Yes | 141 | $93 |
| Ragged-Horror | No | 102 | $35 |
| Everlasting-Redirect | No | 100 | $34 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $78 |
| Oct 24, 03:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 34.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 66.0%. Next is 25 bps decrease at 22.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-russia-decision-in-december?via=bro
$24.6K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 18, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13.
No change, priced at 66.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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