As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price April 30, 2027 at 89.0% in Base iPhone 18 released by...? — $3.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, April 30, 2027, is priced at 89.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +8.0 pts.
Since September 18, 2026, April 30, 2027 has traded between 69.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.0% |
April 30, 2027 is favored at 89.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2027 | 89¢ | 89.0% | — | $2.7K | 69.9% |
| March 31, 2027 | 70¢ | 70.0% | -1.0 pts | $730 | 19.0% |
| February 28, 2027 | 11¢ | 11.0% | — | $425 | 11.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 476 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 476 | $424 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 340 | $37 |
| 0xfa394a59… | No | 220 | $24 |
| Gentle-Shingle | Yes | 91 | $81 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 89 | $10 |
| Variable-Aim | Yes | 61 | $54 |
| White-Squirrel | Yes | 57 | $50 |
| Speedy-Bartender | No | 50 | $6 |
| Minty-Scalp | Yes | 22 | $20 |
| LIBAI | Yes | 20 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 04:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 12:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 05:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 05:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 04:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 12:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 01:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is April 30, 2027 at 89.0%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 70.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/base-iphone-18-released-by?via=bro
$3.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
April 30, 2027, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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