As of October 24, 2026, 09:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Canelo at 60.5% in Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli — $23 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Canelo, is priced at 60.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, Canelo has traded between 60.5% and 66.0%. It opened at 66.0% and last traded at 60.5%.
Canelo is favored at 60.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canelo | 60¢ | 60.5% | -4.0 pts | $23 | 100.0% |
| Mbilli | 40¢ | 39.5% | +4.0 pts | $23 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 52¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$23 has been traded on this event in total, $8 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Canelo" if Canelo Álvarez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Mbilli in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Mbilli" if Christian Mbilli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "50-50." This market will resolve based on the official result announced at the conclusion of the event. Any later change to that result, including an overturn to a No Contest, will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Boxing Council (WBC); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 15 shares of Canelo.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tricky-Usher | Canelo | 15 | $9 |
| Glass-Hydrolyse | Mbilli | 15 | $6 |
| Variable-Tensor | Canelo | 8 | $5 |
| Calculating-Recliner | Mbilli | 8 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:50 PM ET | Canelo | BUY | 69.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 07:14 AM ET | Mbilli | BUY | 49.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is Canelo at 60.5%. Next is Mbilli at 39.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/boxing-canelo-alvarez-vs-christian-mbilli?via=bro
$23 in total volume, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Canelo, priced at 60.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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