As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 15 at 85.5% in ChatGPT Outage by...? — $749 traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 15, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, November 15 has traded between 78.5% and 84.0%. It opened at 84.0% and last traded at 78.5%.
November 15 is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 86¢ | 85.5% | +1.5 pts | $229 | 30.5% |
| October 31 | 59¢ | 59.0% | +25.5 pts | $520 | 69.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$749 has been traded on this event in total, $14 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 151 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Alteration | Yes | 151 | $129 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 63 | $9 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 40 | $6 |
| Evil-Row | No | 20 | $3 |
| Venerated-Worm | No | 14 | $2 |
| 0x16e79aa0… | No | 10 | $1 |
| Unkempt-Ladybug | No | 5 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 09:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 07:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 07:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 06:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 46.0% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 01:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $27 |
| Oct 23, 12:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 12:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 12:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 12:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 12:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 51.0% | $36 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 15 at 85.5%. Next is October 31 at 59.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-outage-byptptpt-20261022?via=bro
$749 in total volume, with $14 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 15, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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