As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $15+ at 84.0% in Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut? — $4.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $15+, is priced at 84.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +7.0 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, $15+ has traded between 71.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 84.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.0% |
$15+ is favored at 84.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15+ | 84¢ | 84.0% | — | $361 | 7.3% |
| $20+ | 68¢ | 67.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.2K | 25.3% |
| $30+ | 6¢ | 5.7% | +1.8 pts | $2.7K | 54.5% |
| $50+ | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.1 pts | $634 | 12.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.9K has been traded on this event in total, $19 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 101 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 101 | $16 |
| Unfinished-Belt | Yes | 51 | $43 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 22 | $19 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 20 | $17 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 8 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 12:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $523 |
| Oct 21, 08:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.9% | $14 |
| Oct 20, 08:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 02:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 03:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 11:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $3 |
| Oct 15, 10:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 10:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 09:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.6% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is $15+ at 84.0%. Next is $20+ at 67.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-5pt6-output-token-price-debut?via=bro
$4.9K in total volume, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing.
$15+, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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