Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $15+ at 84.0% in Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut? — $4.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $19.
Leading outcome
$15+
84%
A 84.0% price implies roughly a 84-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +1.0 pts30D +7.0 pts
$15+84.0%
$20+67.5%
Bid
81¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
6¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 24, 2026: 71.5% – 85.5% · Opened at 71.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?
Category
AI, Tech, Debut, Claude, Compute, Anthropic, AI Releases, Claude Opus
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.9K
Volume (24h)
$19
Liquidity
$1.3K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
$15+ — 84.0%
Resolution source
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, $15+, is priced at 84.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +7.0 pts.

Since September 24, 2026, $15+ has traded between 71.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 84.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202684.0%
Oct 16, 202683.0%
Oct 18, 202683.0%
Oct 19, 202684.5%
Oct 20, 202684.5%
Oct 23, 202684.0%
Oct 24, 202684.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

$15+ is favored at 84.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
$15+84¢84.0%—$3617.3%
$20+68¢67.5%-3.0 pts$1.2K25.3%
$30+6¢5.7%+1.8 pts$2.7K54.5%
$50+3¢3.1%-0.1 pts$63412.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.9K has been traded on this event in total, $19 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 101 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo101$16
Unfinished-BeltYes51$43
Sparse-CookieYes22$19
Attentive-CrewmanYes20$17
Straight-WrinkleYes8$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $523 at 98.0%BUY No — $443 at 82.9%BUY No — $99 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:35 AM ETNoBUY31.0%$6
Oct 22, 12:45 PM ETNoBUY98.0%$523
Oct 21, 08:48 AM ETNoSELL95.9%$14
Oct 20, 08:42 PM ETNoBUY37.0%$7
Oct 20, 02:10 PM ETYesSELL0.5%$0
Oct 17, 03:43 AM ETYesSELL2.3%$0
Oct 15, 11:14 PM ETNoBUY36.0%$3
Oct 15, 10:05 PM ETNoSELL41.0%$4
Oct 15, 10:00 PM ETYesSELL1.7%$0
Oct 15, 09:56 PM ETYesBUY6.6%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is $15+ at 84.0%. Next is $20+ at 67.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-5pt6-output-token-price-debut?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut??

$4.9K in total volume, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing.

What is the most likely outcome of Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

$15+, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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