As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 20.5% in Clavicular sentenced to prison by...? — $97.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 20.5%.
Since September 25, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 10.5% and 32.0%. It opened at 27.5% and last traded at 20.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 20.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 20.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 20¢ | 20.5% | — | $19 | 0.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $97.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$97.5K has been traded on this event in total, $27 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2027 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point all charges against Clavicular for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insidious-Meteor | No | 9 | $8 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 | Yes | 9 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 07:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 05:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 08:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $362 |
| Oct 13, 12:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $26 |
| Oct 12, 04:02 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 04:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 07, 09:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 04:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 20.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison-114?via=bro
$97.5K in total volume, with $27 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 20.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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