As of October 24, 2026, 09:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.0% in Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO? — $11 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.3 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, No has traded between 95.0% and 97.1%. It opened at 95.5% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.0% |
No is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.0% | -0.3 pts | $11 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.3 pts | $11 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is not the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at the moment Anthropic shares begin trading on their first trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Anthropic has not completed an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on whether Dario Amodei is the Chief Executive Officer of Anthropic at that date and time. Only Dario Amodei's status at that moment will be considered. A resignation or removal followed by a return to the position before that moment will not affect resolution, and an announced resignation or removal that has not yet taken effect will not be considered. Dario Amodei will be considered Chief Executive Officer only if he holds the Chief Executive Officer title, including as co-Chief Executive Officer. Another role, such as executive chairman, without that title will not count. Anthropic's first trading day is the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading, as confirmed by official announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Dario Amodei and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 11 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 11 | $1 |
| 0x33042377… | No | 11 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 04:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.0%. Next is Yes at 5.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/dario-amodei-out-as-anthropic-ceo-before-ipo?via=bro
$11 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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