As of October 24, 2026, 08:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 75.5% in ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 — $38.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 75.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: +10.5 pts.
Since September 14, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 33.0% and 83.5%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 75.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 75.5% |
25 bps increase is favored at 75.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 76¢ | 75.5% | -0.5 pts | $18.5K | 48.6% |
| No change | 21¢ | 21.0% | — | $11.0K | 29.0% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1.2% | +0.1 pts | $2.6K | 7.0% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $2.8K | 7.4% |
| 50+ bps increase | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $3.0K | 8.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.0K has been traded on this event in total, $94 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 17, 2026, 06:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,805 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,805 | $687 |
| Pretty-Mother | Yes | 1,880 | $1.4K |
| Few-Prevention | No | 926 | $227 |
| Rusty-Tactile | Yes | 623 | $471 |
| Rubbery-Festival | Yes | 536 | $404 |
| 0xa0f21e6d… | No | 430 | $105 |
| Outrageous-Pseudocode | Yes | 380 | $287 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 361 | $88 |
| Striped-Heritage | Yes | 330 | $249 |
| Bowed-Stud | Yes | 328 | $248 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $62 |
| Oct 24, 11:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 07:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 23.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.1% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 06:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $110 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 75.5%. Next is No change at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026?via=bro
$38.0K in total volume, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 17, 2026, 06:59 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.
25 bps increase, priced at 75.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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