As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kimi Antonelli at 99.7% in United States Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position — $91.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Kimi Antonelli, is priced at 99.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +83.2 pts; past week: +76.2 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, Kimi Antonelli has traded between 21.5% and 99.8%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 99.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 99.8% |
Kimi Antonelli is favored at 99.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 100¢ | 99.7% | +83.2 pts | $16.3K | 17.7% |
| Max Verstappen | 1¢ | 1.1% | -41.3 pts | $21.6K | 23.5% |
| Esteban Ocon | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $156 | 0.2% |
| Franco Colapinto | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $156 | 0.2% |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $156 | 0.2% |
| Arvid Lindblad | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Lance Stroll | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $166 | 0.2% |
| Oliver Bearman | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.4 pts | $156 | 0.2% |
| Sergio Perez | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.4 pts | $10 | 0.0% |
| Alexander Albon | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Isack Hadjar | 1¢ | 0.5% | -1.4 pts | $3.3K | 3.6% |
| Fernando Alonso | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.9 pts | $500 | 0.5% |
| Pierre Gasly | 0¢ | 0.4% | -1.0 pts | $6 | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.9 pts | $156 | 0.2% |
| Lando Norris | 0¢ | 0.4% | -9.0 pts | $9.4K | 10.2% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.9 pts | $6 | 0.0% |
| Oscar Piastri | 0¢ | 0.4% | -2.2 pts | $4.2K | 4.6% |
| Liam Lawson | 0¢ | 0.4% | -1.0 pts | $6 | 0.0% |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 0¢ | 0.4% | -13.1 pts | $10 | 0.0% |
| Charles Leclerc | 0¢ | 0.3% | -22.2 pts | $16.9K | 18.4% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0¢ | 0.1% | -8.8 pts | $8.4K | 9.1% |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0¢ | 0.1% | -1.4 pts | $513 | 0.6% |
| George Russell | 0¢ | 0.1% | -4.5 pts | $9.9K | 10.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 100¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$91.3K has been traded on this event in total, $88.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 29 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 05:00 PM ET.
This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 24, 2026. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Oct 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,000 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-Derivation | Yes | 3,000 | $3.0K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,613 | $8 |
| Understated-Opossum | No | 1,816 | $5 |
| Serene-Sculpting | Yes | 1,700 | $1.7K |
| Corrupt-Poisoning | No | 1,576 | $5 |
| Fortunate-Tweezers | No | 1,498 | $4 |
| Satisfied-Fan | No | 1,173 | $4 |
| Capital-Cohort | Yes | 1,023 | $1.0K |
| Dual-Politics | Yes | 1,000 | $997 |
| Required-Sorbet | Yes | 1,000 | $997 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.8% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.5% | $68 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.9% | $400 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $70 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kimi Antonelli at 99.7%. Next is Max Verstappen at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-united-states-grand-prix-driver-pole-position-2026-10-24?via=bro
$91.3K in total volume, with $88.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 29 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 05:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
Kimi Antonelli, priced at 99.7% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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