As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Max Verstappen at 45.5% in United States Grand Prix: Driver Winner — $103.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Max Verstappen, is priced at 45.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, Max Verstappen has traded between 41.0% and 54.0%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 45.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 45.5% |
Max Verstappen is favored at 45.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 46¢ | 45.5% | — | $21.0K | 20.2% |
| Kimi Antonelli | 44¢ | 43.5% | +21.0 pts | $19.1K | 18.4% |
| Charles Leclerc | 5¢ | 5.0% | -10.0 pts | $20.9K | 20.1% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 4¢ | 4.4% | -3.6 pts | $10.2K | 9.8% |
| George Russell | 2¢ | 2.1% | -2.5 pts | $12.1K | 11.6% |
| Lando Norris | 2¢ | 1.8% | -8.2 pts | $7.5K | 7.2% |
| Isack Hadjar | 2¢ | 1.7% | +0.9 pts | $7.2K | 6.9% |
| Oscar Piastri | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.5 pts | $3.0K | 2.8% |
| Pierre Gasly | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.1 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Oliver Bearman | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Arvid Lindblad | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Liam Lawson | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.1 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Esteban Ocon | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.4 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Franco Colapinto | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.4 pts | $5 | 0.0% |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.8 pts | $176 | 0.2% |
| Fernando Alonso | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.5 pts | $472 | 0.5% |
| Sergio Perez | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $613 | 0.6% |
| Valtteri Bottas | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $593 | 0.6% |
| Lance Stroll | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $570 | 0.5% |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $26 | 0.0% |
| Alexander Albon | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.3 pts | $624 | 0.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$103.4K has been traded on this event in total, $70.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 29 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET.
This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Nov 1, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,178 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genuine-Segment | No | 6,178 | $3.4K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,208 | $2.3K |
| Hollow-Botany | Yes | 2,250 | $1.0K |
| Elderly-Waiver | Yes | 2,000 | $910 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 1,649 | $750 |
| Sore-Role | Yes | 1,448 | $659 |
| Elderly-Almighty | No | 1,313 | $716 |
| Youthful-Point-Angina | Yes | 1,228 | $559 |
| Outrageous-Knowledge | Yes | 1,000 | $455 |
| Tiny-Security | Yes | 667 | $303 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.3% | $45 |
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 06:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 06:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $180 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Max Verstappen at 45.5%. Next is Kimi Antonelli at 43.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-united-states-grand-prix-winner-2026-10-25?via=bro
$103.4K in total volume, with $70.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 29 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
Max Verstappen, priced at 45.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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