As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 68.0% in Fed Decision in January? — $899.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 68.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, No change has traded between 46.5% and 68.0%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 68.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.0% |
No change is favored at 68.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 68¢ | 68.0% | +0.5 pts | $219.6K | 24.4% |
| 25 bps increase | 28¢ | 28.5% | -1.0 pts | $285.0K | 31.7% |
| 50+ bps increase | 1¢ | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $101.1K | 11.2% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $125.9K | 14.0% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.1 pts | $167.7K | 18.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$899.3K has been traded on this event in total, $8.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80,347 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 80,347 | $25.7K |
| Useful-Platform | Yes | 27,799 | $18.9K |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Yes | 26,516 | $18.0K |
| Intelligent-Washbasin | Yes | 13,021 | $8.9K |
| Nautical-Placement | Yes | 9,948 | $6.8K |
| Similar-Format | Yes | 3,252 | $2.2K |
| x26 | Yes | 3,173 | $2.2K |
| Whimsical-Seller | No | 3,126 | $1.0K |
| Flippant-Speech | Yes | 3,000 | $2.0K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 2,680 | $858 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 02:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 67.0% | $64 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 67.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $1.4K |
| Oct 24, 01:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 09:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 68.0%. Next is 25 bps increase at 28.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502?via=bro
$899.3K in total volume, with $8.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
No change, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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