Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Fed Decision in January?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 68.0% in Fed Decision in January? — $899.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $8.9K.
Leading outcome
No change
68%
A 68.0% price implies roughly a 68-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D +5.5 pts30D +11.5 pts
No change68.0%
25 bps increase28.5%
Bid
67¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 30, 2026: 46.5% – 68.0% · Opened at 56.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Fed Decision in January?
Category
Fed, fomc, Trump, Economy, Fed Rates, Kevin Warsh, Global Rates, Economic Policy, Macro Indicators, Recurring
Scheduled end
January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$899.3K
Volume (24h)
$8.9K
Liquidity
$654.4K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No change — 68.0%
Resolution source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 68.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.

Since July 30, 2026, No change has traded between 46.5% and 68.0%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 68.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202657.5%
Oct 16, 202662.5%
Oct 18, 202662.5%
Oct 19, 202664.5%
Oct 20, 202659.0%
Oct 23, 202667.5%
Oct 24, 202668.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No change is favored at 68.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No change68¢68.0%+0.5 pts$219.6K24.4%
25 bps increase28¢28.5%-1.0 pts$285.0K31.7%
50+ bps increase1¢1.4%+0.1 pts$101.1K11.2%
25 bps decrease1¢1.1%+0.1 pts$125.9K14.0%
50+ bps decrease1¢0.8%+0.1 pts$167.7K18.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$899.3K has been traded on this event in total, $8.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80,347 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No80,347$25.7K
Useful-PlatformYes27,799$18.9K
Favorable-Pepper-BrushingYes26,516$18.0K
Intelligent-WashbasinYes13,021$8.9K
Nautical-PlacementYes9,948$6.8K
Similar-FormatYes3,252$2.2K
x26Yes3,173$2.2K
Whimsical-SellerNo3,126$1.0K
Flippant-SpeechYes3,000$2.0K
Prickly-EyrieNo2,680$858

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $8.6K at 30.6%SELL No — $1.4K at 71.0%SELL Yes — $741 at 29.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETNoSELL71.0%$36
Oct 24, 02:57 PM ETYesBUY0.8%$1
Oct 24, 01:49 PM ETYesSELL67.0%$64
Oct 24, 01:20 PM ETYesSELL67.0%$7
Oct 24, 01:08 PM ETNoSELL71.0%$1.4K
Oct 24, 01:07 PM ETYesSELL28.0%$14
Oct 24, 12:00 PM ETNoSELL31.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:17 AM ETYesSELL67.0%$13
Oct 24, 09:05 AM ETNoBUY32.0%$3
Oct 24, 09:05 AM ETNoBUY32.0%$3

Related markets

More Fed

Fed Decision in October?

No change 94.5% · 24H VOL $1.19M

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase 76.5% · 24H VOL $122.7K

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 96.7% · 24H VOL $72.4K

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 75.0% · 24H VOL $47.9K

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike 74.0% · 24H VOL $37.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Fed Decision in January??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 68.0%. Next is 25 bps increase at 28.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Fed Decision in January??

$899.3K in total volume, with $8.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Fed Decision in January? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

What is the most likely outcome of Fed Decision in January?, according to Polymarket traders?

No change, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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