Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hike–Pause–Hike at 74.0% in Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — $475.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $37.0K.
Leading outcome
Hike–Pause–Hike
74%
A 74.0% price implies roughly a 74-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.5 pts7D +5.5 pts30D +51.0 pts
Hike–Pause–Hike74.0%
Hike–Pause–Pause21.0%
Bid
73¢
Ask
75¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 02, 2026: 7.5% – 72.5% · Opened at 25.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Category
Fed, fomc, Economy, Parlays, Fed Rates, CPI Release, Kevin Warsh, Economic Policy, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 09, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$475.2K
Volume (24h)
$37.0K
Liquidity
$297.1K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
Hike–Pause–Hike — 74.0%
Resolution source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Hike–Pause–Hike, is priced at 74.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +51.0 pts.

Since September 02, 2026, Hike–Pause–Hike has traded between 7.5% and 72.5%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 71.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202661.0%
Oct 16, 202669.0%
Oct 18, 202668.5%
Oct 19, 202667.5%
Oct 20, 202668.0%
Oct 22, 202672.5%
Oct 23, 202671.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Hike–Pause–Hike is favored at 74.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Hike–Pause–Hike74¢74.0%+2.5 pts$116.1K24.4%
Hike–Pause–Pause21¢21.0%-0.5 pts$136.1K28.6%
Hike–Hike–Hike2¢2.2%-3.5 pts$104.9K22.1%
Hike–Hike–Pause1¢1.4%+0.9 pts$65.5K13.8%
Other1¢1.0%-0.4 pts$30.2K6.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$475.2K has been traded on this event in total, $37.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 09, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 41,055 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No41,055$10.7K
Nautical-PlacementYes25,215$18.7K
Testy-OperatorNo7,150$1.9K
Sparse-CookieYes6,130$4.5K
Impressionable-Squash-VentureYes5,818$4.3K
Hideous-RacerYes4,000$3.0K
Crisp-ScarfYes3,496$2.6K
Queasy-CougarYes3,170$2.3K
Whirlwind-MaggotYes3,079$2.3K
Vibrant-VintnerNo2,296$597

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $955 at 77.0%BUY No — $780 at 78.0%BUY No — $711 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETYesBUY75.0%$15
Oct 24, 06:01 PM ETYesBUY75.0%$15
Oct 24, 04:43 PM ETNoSELL27.0%$8
Oct 24, 04:38 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$31
Oct 24, 04:25 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$79
Oct 24, 04:24 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$63
Oct 24, 04:24 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$711
Oct 24, 04:24 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$79
Oct 24, 04:24 PM ETNoBUY78.0%$78
Oct 24, 04:07 PM ETYesSELL72.0%$5

Related markets

More Fed

Fed Decision in October?

No change 94.5% · 24H VOL $1.19M

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase 76.5% · 24H VOL $122.7K

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 96.7% · 24H VOL $72.4K

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 75.0% · 24H VOL $47.9K

Fed Decision in January?

No change 68.0% · 24H VOL $8.9K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hike–Pause–Hike at 74.0%. Next is Hike–Pause–Pause at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?

$475.2K in total volume, with $37.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) end?

The market is scheduled to end December 09, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

What is the most likely outcome of Fed decisions (Sep–Dec), according to Polymarket traders?

Hike–Pause–Hike, priced at 74.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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