As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hike–Pause–Hike at 74.0% in Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — $475.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Hike–Pause–Hike, is priced at 74.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +51.0 pts.
Since September 02, 2026, Hike–Pause–Hike has traded between 7.5% and 72.5%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 71.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.5% |
Hike–Pause–Hike is favored at 74.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike–Pause–Hike | 74¢ | 74.0% | +2.5 pts | $116.1K | 24.4% |
| Hike–Pause–Pause | 21¢ | 21.0% | -0.5 pts | $136.1K | 28.6% |
| Hike–Hike–Hike | 2¢ | 2.2% | -3.5 pts | $104.9K | 22.1% |
| Hike–Hike–Pause | 1¢ | 1.4% | +0.9 pts | $65.5K | 13.8% |
| Other | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.4 pts | $30.2K | 6.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$475.2K has been traded on this event in total, $37.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 09, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 41,055 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 41,055 | $10.7K |
| Nautical-Placement | Yes | 25,215 | $18.7K |
| Testy-Operator | No | 7,150 | $1.9K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 6,130 | $4.5K |
| Impressionable-Squash-Venture | Yes | 5,818 | $4.3K |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 4,000 | $3.0K |
| Crisp-Scarf | Yes | 3,496 | $2.6K |
| Queasy-Cougar | Yes | 3,170 | $2.3K |
| Whirlwind-Maggot | Yes | 3,079 | $2.3K |
| Vibrant-Vintner | No | 2,296 | $597 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 27.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 04:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $79 |
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $63 |
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $711 |
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $79 |
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $78 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hike–Pause–Hike at 74.0%. Next is Hike–Pause–Pause at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec?via=bro
$475.2K in total volume, with $37.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 09, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Hike–Pause–Hike, priced at 74.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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