As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 5.6% in France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...? — $15.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 5.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: -8.4 pts.
Since September 16, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.4% and 20.5%. It opened at 5.5% and last traded at 5.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 7.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.8% |
December 31 is favored at 5.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6¢ | 5.6% | +0.4 pts | $6.5K | 42.3% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.5 pts | $6.7K | 44.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.3K has been traded on this event in total, $343 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 629 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Appropriate-Landscape | No | 629 | $594 |
| Corny-Mode | Yes | 550 | $31 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 420 | $396 |
| Exhausted-String | Yes | 346 | $19 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | No | 220 | $208 |
| Mundane-Viola | No | 200 | $189 |
| Essential-Boar-Harmonize | Yes | 166 | $9 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | Yes | 156 | $9 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 149 | $8 |
| NoSteinNoGate | No | 111 | $105 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $104 |
| Oct 23, 02:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.9% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 07:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.4% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $266 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 5.6%. Next is October 31 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/france-uk-or-germany-military-action-against-yemen-by-20260914?via=bro
$15.3K in total volume, with $343 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 5.6% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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