As of October 24, 2026, 08:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 43.0% in Gemini Spark on the free plan by...? — $3.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 43.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, December 31 has traded between 22.5% and 47.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 43.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 43.0% |
December 31 is favored at 43.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 43¢ | 43.0% | -3.0 pts | $662 | 19.5% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $2.7K | 80.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user, and made it free to use, including the cloud computer. Google's similar product, Gemini Spark, announced on May 19, 2026, is available only on paid Google AI plans. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google makes Gemini Spark available for use without requiring a paid subscription or other paid entitlement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Free access subject to usage limits will qualify. Access through a free trial or promotional offer of a paid plan will not qualify. Free access must be launched and publicly accessible through an official distribution channel, including via open beta or a gradual rollout to users without a paid subscription or other paid entitlement. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 199 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 199 | $86 |
| Playful-Badger | No | 110 | $63 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 41 | $23 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 40 | $23 |
| Required-Horn | No | 14 | $8 |
| Lovable-Mug-Mimosa | Yes | 4 | $2 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 10:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $40 |
| Oct 17, 10:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 16, 06:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $5 |
| Oct 15, 12:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $9 |
| Oct 15, 04:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 03:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.4% | $20 |
| Oct 14, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 01:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 07:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $10 |
| Oct 13, 05:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 43.0%. Next is October 31 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-spark-on-the-free-plan-by?via=bro
$3.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 43.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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