Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Gemini Spark on the free plan by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 43.0% in Gemini Spark on the free plan by...? — $3.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
43%
A 43.0% price implies roughly a 43-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.0 pts
December 3143.0%
October 311.6%
Bid
13¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
60¢
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Range since October 03, 2026: 22.5% – 47.0% · Opened at 29.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Gemini Spark on the free plan by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Gemini, google
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.4K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$487
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 43.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 43.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts.

Since October 03, 2026, December 31 has traded between 22.5% and 47.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 43.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202626.5%
Oct 16, 202647.0%
Oct 18, 202643.0%
Oct 19, 202643.0%
Oct 20, 202643.0%
Oct 24, 202643.0%
Oct 24, 202643.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 43.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3143¢43.0%-3.0 pts$66219.5%
October 312¢1.6%-0.1 pts$2.7K80.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user, and made it free to use, including the cloud computer. Google's similar product, Gemini Spark, announced on May 19, 2026, is available only on paid Google AI plans. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google makes Gemini Spark available for use without requiring a paid subscription or other paid entitlement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Free access subject to usage limits will qualify. Access through a free trial or promotional offer of a paid plan will not qualify. Free access must be launched and publicly accessible through an official distribution channel, including via open beta or a gradual rollout to users without a paid subscription or other paid entitlement. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 199 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes199$86
Playful-BadgerNo110$63
Skeletal-LiverNo41$23
Gripping-AbolishmentNo40$23
Required-HornNo14$8
Lovable-Mug-MimosaYes4$2
Oddball-PoisonYes1$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $691 at 80.6%SELL No — $119 at 99.0%BUY No — $40 at 67.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 19, 10:49 AM ETNoBUY99.7%$40
Oct 17, 10:45 AM ETYesSELL0.3%$0
Oct 16, 06:09 AM ETNoBUY78.0%$5
Oct 15, 12:31 PM ETYesBUY25.0%$9
Oct 15, 04:07 AM ETYesSELL0.3%$0
Oct 15, 03:54 AM ETNoBUY81.4%$20
Oct 14, 09:56 AM ETYesSELL0.9%$0
Oct 14, 01:43 AM ETYesBUY25.0%$5
Oct 13, 07:53 PM ETNoBUY80.0%$10
Oct 13, 05:32 PM ETYesBUY27.0%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Gemini Spark on the free plan by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 43.0%. Next is October 31 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-spark-on-the-free-plan-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Gemini Spark on the free plan by...??

$3.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Gemini Spark on the free plan by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Gemini Spark on the free plan by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 43.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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