Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 55%+ at 91.0% in GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? — $44.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $19.7K.
Leading outcome
55%+
91%
A 91.0% price implies roughly a 91-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +6.5 pts
55%+91.0%
60%+85.0%
Bid
90¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 22, 2026: 84.5% – 92.0% · Opened at 92.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
Category
AI, gpt, Tech, Astra, OpenAI, AI Releases, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$44.0K
Volume (24h)
$19.7K
Liquidity
$8.5K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
55%+ — 91.0%
Resolution source
https://agi.safe.ai/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 55%+, is priced at 91.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.5 pts.

Since October 22, 2026, 55%+ has traded between 84.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 92.0% and last traded at 84.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

55%+ is favored at 91.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
55%+91¢91.0%+6.5 pts$16.3K37.0%
60%+85¢85.0%+5.5 pts$12.7K28.8%
65%+32¢31.5%+10.5 pts$11.9K27.0%
70%+18¢17.5%+8.0 pts$3.2K7.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 90¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$44.0K has been traded on this event in total, $19.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,476 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Impartial-HarmonizeYes1,476$1.3K
Belated-GlueNo1,080$97
Perfumed-MoatNo444$40
Grumpy-InvaderNo228$21
Writhing-RoundNo150$14
Known-UseYes141$128
Creative-DictionYes133$121
Evil-RowYes132$120
Weird-Ephemeris-ExceptionYes114$104
Bossy-Birdcage-PeriodNo77$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $2.2K at 80.3%BUY No — $670 at 60.0%BUY Yes — $466 at 22.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:25 PM ETNoSELL9.0%$4
Oct 24, 06:23 PM ETNoSELL9.0%$19
Oct 24, 06:23 PM ETYesBUY91.6%$48
Oct 24, 06:15 PM ETNoSELL10.0%$10
Oct 24, 06:12 PM ETNoSELL10.0%$9
Oct 24, 06:11 PM ETNoSELL62.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETNoSELL63.0%$6
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETNoSELL65.0%$36
Oct 24, 06:07 PM ETNoSELL11.0%$9
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesBUY91.0%$46

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 55%+ at 91.0%. Next is 60%+ at 85.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-hle-diamond-debut-20261020?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut??

$44.0K in total volume, with $19.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.

What is the most likely outcome of GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

55%+, priced at 91.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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