As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 55%+ at 91.0% in GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? — $44.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 55%+, is priced at 91.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 55%+ has traded between 84.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 92.0% and last traded at 84.5%.
55%+ is favored at 91.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55%+ | 91¢ | 91.0% | +6.5 pts | $16.3K | 37.0% |
| 60%+ | 85¢ | 85.0% | +5.5 pts | $12.7K | 28.8% |
| 65%+ | 32¢ | 31.5% | +10.5 pts | $11.9K | 27.0% |
| 70%+ | 18¢ | 17.5% | +8.0 pts | $3.2K | 7.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 90¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.0K has been traded on this event in total, $19.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,476 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impartial-Harmonize | Yes | 1,476 | $1.3K |
| Belated-Glue | No | 1,080 | $97 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 444 | $40 |
| Grumpy-Invader | No | 228 | $21 |
| Writhing-Round | No | 150 | $14 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 141 | $128 |
| Creative-Diction | Yes | 133 | $121 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 132 | $120 |
| Weird-Ephemeris-Exception | Yes | 114 | $104 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 77 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 9.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 06:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.6% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 62.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 63.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 06:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.0% | $46 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 55%+ at 91.0%. Next is 60%+ at 85.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-hle-diamond-debut-20261020?via=bro
$44.0K in total volume, with $19.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
55%+, priced at 91.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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