Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 84.0% in GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? — $376.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $9.6K.
Leading outcome
December 31
84%
A 84.0% price implies roughly a 84-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −7.5 pts30D −10.0 pts
December 3184.0%
December 1577.0%
Bid
83¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since September 04, 2026: 59.5% – 95.0% · Opened at 59.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Category
AI, gpt, Tech, Astra, OpenAI, AI Releases, GPT Releases
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$376.5K
Volume (24h)
$9.6K
Liquidity
$32.7K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
December 31 — 84.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 84.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -7.5 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.

Since September 04, 2026, December 31 has traded between 59.5% and 95.0%. It opened at 59.5% and last traded at 84.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202692.5%
Oct 16, 202693.5%
Oct 18, 202691.0%
Oct 19, 202686.5%
Oct 20, 202687.0%
Oct 23, 202684.0%
Oct 24, 202684.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 84.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3184¢84.0%—$87.1K23.1%
December 1577¢77.0%-2.0 pts$2.9K0.8%
November 3065¢65.0%-11.0 pts$7.2K1.9%
November 1537¢37.0%-2.0 pts$3.5K0.9%
October 319¢9.0%+2.0 pts$111.3K29.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$376.5K has been traded on this event in total, $9.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,560 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Attached-Example-AnesthesiologistYes17,560$14.8K
Silver-Eyebrows-InstructionNo17,445$2.8K
0xef97d61b…Yes7,230$6.1K
Golden-UnemploymentNo5,112$818
Cool-PattypanNo3,910$626
Sore-PitchingNo3,687$590
Terrible-GynaecologyYes2,918$2.5K
Growing-WayYes2,212$1.9K
Tasty-Hatbox-GuiltNo2,160$346
Weepy-CurtainNo2,009$321

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $606 at 83.7%SELL No — $417 at 91.0%SELL No — $344 at 92.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:06 PM ETYesSELL64.0%$22
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETNoSELL15.0%$38
Oct 24, 04:20 PM ETNoSELL34.0%$5
Oct 24, 03:50 PM ETYesBUY85.0%$34
Oct 24, 03:50 PM ETYesBUY85.0%$175
Oct 24, 03:21 PM ETNoSELL34.0%$5
Oct 24, 03:10 PM ETYesSELL65.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:25 PM ETNoBUY34.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:06 PM ETYesBUY67.0%$22
Oct 24, 02:06 PM ETYesSELL68.0%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 84.0%. Next is December 15 at 77.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...??

$376.5K in total volume, with $9.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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