As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 84.0% in GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? — $376.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 84.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -7.5 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.
Since September 04, 2026, December 31 has traded between 59.5% and 95.0%. It opened at 59.5% and last traded at 84.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.0% |
December 31 is favored at 84.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 84¢ | 84.0% | — | $87.1K | 23.1% |
| December 15 | 77¢ | 77.0% | -2.0 pts | $2.9K | 0.8% |
| November 30 | 65¢ | 65.0% | -11.0 pts | $7.2K | 1.9% |
| November 15 | 37¢ | 37.0% | -2.0 pts | $3.5K | 0.9% |
| October 31 | 9¢ | 9.0% | +2.0 pts | $111.3K | 29.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$376.5K has been traded on this event in total, $9.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,560 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | Yes | 17,560 | $14.8K |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 17,445 | $2.8K |
| 0xef97d61b… | Yes | 7,230 | $6.1K |
| Golden-Unemployment | No | 5,112 | $818 |
| Cool-Pattypan | No | 3,910 | $626 |
| Sore-Pitching | No | 3,687 | $590 |
| Terrible-Gynaecology | Yes | 2,918 | $2.5K |
| Growing-Way | Yes | 2,212 | $1.9K |
| Tasty-Hatbox-Guilt | No | 2,160 | $346 |
| Weepy-Curtain | No | 2,009 | $321 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 04:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 34.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 03:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 03:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $175 |
| Oct 24, 03:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 34.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 03:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 65.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 34.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 84.0%. Next is December 15 at 77.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$376.5K in total volume, with $9.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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