As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1430+ at 77.0% in GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut? — $20.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1430+, is priced at 77.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 1430+ has traded between 77.0% and 88.0%. It opened at 88.0% and last traded at 77.0%.
1430+ is favored at 77.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1430+ | 77¢ | 77.0% | -10.5 pts | $4.8K | 23.9% |
| 1440+ | 55¢ | 55.0% | -21.5 pts | $7.1K | 35.8% |
| 1450+ | 50¢ | 49.5% | +3.5 pts | $2.2K | 10.9% |
| 1460+ | 36¢ | 36.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | 11.2% |
| 1470+ | 22¢ | 22.5% | — | $3.6K | 18.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.0K has been traded on this event in total, $7.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 682 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impartial-Harmonize | No | 682 | $157 |
| Close-Fitness-Nightclub | Yes | 504 | $388 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 218 | $50 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 190 | $44 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 100 | $77 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 97 | $75 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | Yes | 60 | $46 |
| Livid-Television | Yes | 50 | $38 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 49 | $37 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 42 | $32 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.0% | $145 |
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.3% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 12:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.3% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 11:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 11:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 48.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.1% | $75 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1430+ at 77.0%. Next is 1440+ at 55.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-text-arena-debut-20261020?via=bro
$20.0K in total volume, with $7.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
1430+, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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