As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 37.5% in Grok (Web) Outage by...? — $5.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 37.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -12.0 pts; past week: -12.5 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, November 30 has traded between 37.5% and 61.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 49.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 49.0% |
November 30 is favored at 37.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 38¢ | 37.5% | -12.0 pts | $1.7K | 33.3% |
| October 31 | 31¢ | 31.0% | +8.5 pts | $3.4K | 66.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 51¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.1K has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify. Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify. An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered. An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://status.x.ai/grok-com
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 124 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital-Cockroach | Yes | 124 | $46 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 122 | $76 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 30 | $19 |
| Heavenly-Tweet-Sweatsuit | No | 23 | $15 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Fuzzy-Draft | Yes | 17 | $6 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 15 | $6 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 10 | $4 |
| Venerated-Worm | No | 10 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 53.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 09:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 09:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 08:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 08:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 37.5%. Next is October 31 at 31.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/grok-web-outage-byptptpt-20261008?via=bro
$5.1K in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://status.x.ai/grok-com.
November 30, priced at 37.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.