As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 45%+ at 94.0% in Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? — $125.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 45%+, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +13.4 pts; past month: +22.7 pts.
Since July 23, 2026, 45%+ has traded between 46.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 83.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 72.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.0% |
45%+ is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45%+ | 94¢ | 94.0% | +3.0 pts | $45.2K | 35.9% |
| 50%+ | 40¢ | 40.5% | -5.0 pts | $43.2K | 34.3% |
| 55%+ | 10¢ | 10.5% | -3.0 pts | $17.6K | 14.0% |
| 60%+ | 7¢ | 7.0% | +1.0 pts | $14.1K | 11.2% |
| 65%+ | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $5.8K | 4.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 91¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$125.9K has been traded on this event in total, $6.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,972 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimpled-Airport-Tea | Yes | 4,972 | $4.7K |
| Fickle-Saxophone-Appetite | Yes | 4,732 | $4.4K |
| Somber-Ice | No | 3,796 | $228 |
| Grave-Atelier | No | 1,857 | $111 |
| Dry-Chromolithograph | No | 1,809 | $109 |
| Impartial-Harmonize | No | 1,268 | $76 |
| Close-Fitness-Nightclub | Yes | 1,196 | $1.1K |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | No | 1,107 | $66 |
| Round-Crook-Welcome | Yes | 889 | $836 |
| Reflecting-Pantology | No | 462 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 39.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 56.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 58.0% | $60 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 38.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.4% | $306 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 42.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $26 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 45%+ at 94.0%. Next is 50%+ at 40.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-kimi-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723191206820?via=bro
$125.9K in total volume, with $6.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
45%+, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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