Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 41.5% in Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) — $83.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $10.
Leading outcome
December 31
42%
A 41.5% price implies roughly a 42-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
December 3141.5%
November 3027.5%
Bid
41¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
1¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Category
Yemen, Houthis, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$83.4K
Volume (24h)
$10
Liquidity
$105.3K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
December 31 — 41.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 41.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3142¢41.5%—$4.2K5.1%
November 3028¢27.5%-0.5 pts$4900.6%
November 1518¢18.5%-0.5 pts$1190.1%
October 318¢7.8%—$47.2K56.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$83.4K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period during which neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against the other, following a qualifying military action (or market creation) that occurs on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." Only qualifying military actions that occur after market creation count. The 14-day period starts on the calendar day (ET) after the most recent qualifying action, or on the date of market creation if none has occurred after market creation. The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Each new qualifying action restarts the count. This market resolves to "Yes" if such a full 14-day period is completed following either market creation or a qualifying action that occurred on or before the specified date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that is either initiated by the Houthis and directly impacts Saudi Arabia, or initiated by Saudi Arabia and directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 214 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa24d776f…No214$125
Flamboyant-WarmingYes211$88
Electric-ArchitectNo129$76
Oddball-PoisonNo67$39
Belated-GlueYes63$26
Threadbare-Investor-TrafficYes47$20
Direct-ChainstayNo22$13
Apt-AntecedentNo20$12
Speedy-BartenderNo19$11
Mushy-GodparentYes10$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $519 at 91.1%SELL Yes — $355 at 43.0%SELL No — $240 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:08 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$2
Oct 24, 06:32 AM ETNoBUY92.3%$1
Oct 23, 03:59 AM ETNoSELL92.0%$5
Oct 22, 12:23 PM ETNoBUY92.3%$46
Oct 22, 11:17 AM ETYesBUY31.0%$2
Oct 22, 11:17 AM ETYesBUY31.0%$24
Oct 22, 10:01 AM ETNoSELL91.3%$154
Oct 22, 08:34 AM ETYesSELL8.1%$4
Oct 22, 08:34 AM ETYesSELL8.1%$4
Oct 22, 08:33 AM ETNoSELL55.0%$6

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 41.5%. Next is November 30 at 27.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-x-saudi-arabia-effective-ceasefire-begins-by-20260916?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)?

$83.4K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause), according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 41.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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