As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 41.5% in Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) — $83.4K traded so far.
December 31 is favored at 41.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 42¢ | 41.5% | — | $4.2K | 5.1% |
| November 30 | 28¢ | 27.5% | -0.5 pts | $490 | 0.6% |
| November 15 | 18¢ | 18.5% | -0.5 pts | $119 | 0.1% |
| October 31 | 8¢ | 7.8% | — | $47.2K | 56.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$83.4K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period during which neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against the other, following a qualifying military action (or market creation) that occurs on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." Only qualifying military actions that occur after market creation count. The 14-day period starts on the calendar day (ET) after the most recent qualifying action, or on the date of market creation if none has occurred after market creation. The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Each new qualifying action restarts the count. This market resolves to "Yes" if such a full 14-day period is completed following either market creation or a qualifying action that occurred on or before the specified date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that is either initiated by the Houthis and directly impacts Saudi Arabia, or initiated by Saudi Arabia and directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 214 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa24d776f… | No | 214 | $125 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 211 | $88 |
| Electric-Architect | No | 129 | $76 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 67 | $39 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 63 | $26 |
| Threadbare-Investor-Traffic | Yes | 47 | $20 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 22 | $13 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $12 |
| Speedy-Bartender | No | 19 | $11 |
| Mushy-Godparent | Yes | 10 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 12:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.3% | $46 |
| Oct 22, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $24 |
| Oct 22, 10:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.3% | $154 |
| Oct 22, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.1% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.1% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 08:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 41.5%. Next is November 30 at 27.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-x-saudi-arabia-effective-ceasefire-begins-by-20260916?via=bro
$83.4K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 41.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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