As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Below 5.25% at 66.0% in How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — $187.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Below 5.25%, is priced at 66.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Below 5.25% has traded between 65.5% and 66.0%. It opened at 65.5% and last traded at 66.0%.
Below 5.25% is favored at 66.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5.25% | 66¢ | 66.0% | +0.5 pts | $309 | 0.2% |
| Below 5.20% | 56¢ | 56.0% | +2.0 pts | $24.2K | 12.9% |
| Below 5.15% | 44¢ | 43.5% | -3.0 pts | $22.9K | 12.2% |
| Below 5.10% | 36¢ | 36.0% | +4.5 pts | $23.1K | 12.3% |
| Below 5.05% | 26¢ | 25.5% | -1.5 pts | $21.1K | 11.2% |
| Below 5.00% | 24¢ | 24.0% | -3.0 pts | $18.1K | 9.6% |
| Below 4.95% | 18¢ | 17.5% | +0.5 pts | $15.1K | 8.0% |
| Below 4.90% | 16¢ | 16.0% | -1.0 pts | $15.9K | 8.5% |
| Below 4.80% | 9¢ | 9.2% | -0.7 pts | $18.0K | 9.6% |
| Below 4.60% | 6¢ | 6.1% | -1.8 pts | $29.1K | 15.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$187.8K has been traded on this event in total, $8.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 52 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 52 | $18 |
| Mixed-Morsel-Embossing | Yes | 30 | $20 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 20 | $13 |
| 0x7334c7c0… | Yes | 20 | $13 |
| Faraway-Chive-Cheese | No | 20 | $7 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Pesky-Glutamate | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Roasted-Eyeglasses | No | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 04:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 03:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 03:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 12:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 57.0% | $52 |
| Oct 24, 10:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.1% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 10:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 10:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Below 5.25% at 66.0%. Next is Below 5.20% at 56.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-30-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027?via=bro
$187.8K in total volume, with $8.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026.
Below 5.25%, priced at 66.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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