As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Below 4.70% at 71.0% in How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — $227.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Below 4.70%, is priced at 71.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -11.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Below 4.70% has traded between 71.0% and 74.5%. It opened at 74.5% and last traded at 71.0%.
Below 4.70% is favored at 71.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.70% | 71¢ | 71.0% | -11.0 pts | $11.9K | 5.2% |
| Below 4.65% | 69¢ | 69.0% | +11.5 pts | $2.0K | 0.9% |
| Below 4.60% | 50¢ | 49.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.5K | 0.6% |
| Below 4.55% | 43¢ | 43.0% | +4.5 pts | $6.9K | 3.0% |
| Below 4.50% | 36¢ | 36.0% | — | $27.7K | 12.2% |
| Below 4.45% | 28¢ | 28.5% | +0.5 pts | $34.0K | 14.9% |
| Below 4.40% | 24¢ | 24.0% | +1.5 pts | $22.5K | 9.9% |
| Below 4.35% | 17¢ | 17.0% | -0.5 pts | $39.9K | 17.5% |
| Below 4.30% | 13¢ | 13.0% | +0.2 pts | $19.9K | 8.7% |
| Below 4.25% | 12¢ | 12.3% | +0.8 pts | $12.4K | 5.5% |
| Below 4.20% | 8¢ | 8.2% | +2.9 pts | $24.1K | 10.6% |
| Below 4.10% | 6¢ | 6.5% | +1.3 pts | $15.5K | 6.8% |
| Below 4.00% | 5¢ | 5.0% | +0.4 pts | $9.6K | 4.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$227.9K has been traded on this event in total, $16.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 723 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 723 | $513 |
| Unselfish-Bonus | No | 455 | $132 |
| Ragged-Horror | No | 308 | $89 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 303 | $88 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 220 | $156 |
| Third-Odyssey | Yes | 154 | $109 |
| Thankful-Buying | No | 128 | $37 |
| Faraway-Chive-Cheese | Yes | 125 | $89 |
| Bite-Sized-Programme | Yes | 115 | $82 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 109 | $32 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 01:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 10:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 35.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 35.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 02:02 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Below 4.70% at 71.0%. Next is Below 4.65% at 69.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027?via=bro
$227.9K in total volume, with $16.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026.
Below 4.70%, priced at 71.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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