As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 8 at 60.4% in How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026? — $1.72M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 8, is priced at 60.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.4 pts; past month: -3.8 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, 8 has traded between 0.4% and 68.2%. It opened at 5.5% and last traded at 60.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 60.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.4% |
8 is favored at 60.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 60¢ | 60.4% | — | $328.5K | 19.1% |
| 9 | 32¢ | 31.6% | +0.9 pts | $123.7K | 7.2% |
| 10 | 9¢ | 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $32.7K | 1.9% |
| 11 | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $31.0K | 1.8% |
| 12 | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $50.4K | 2.9% |
| 13 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $104.2K | 6.1% |
| 15+ | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $131.2K | 7.6% |
| 14 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $153.8K | 8.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.72M has been traded on this event in total, $175 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,954 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 9,954 | $3.9K |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 3,307 | $2.0K |
| Comfortable-Span | Yes | 2,723 | $1.6K |
| Fearful-Congress | Yes | 2,495 | $1.5K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 1,311 | $791 |
| Juicy-Bore-Admin | Yes | 1,129 | $682 |
| Electric-Architect | No | 848 | $336 |
| Infinite-War | No | 580 | $230 |
| Normal-Mariachi | Yes | 462 | $279 |
| Fancy-Kill | No | 454 | $180 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.5% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.5% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 05:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $61 |
| Oct 22, 04:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
| Oct 22, 04:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 04:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.2% | $13 |
| Oct 21, 08:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.2% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 8 at 60.4%. Next is 9 at 31.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026?via=bro
$1.72M in total volume, with $175 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
8, priced at 60.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.