Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 475k to 500k at 24.5% in How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026? — $6.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $767.
Leading outcome
475k to 500k
24%
A 24.5% price implies roughly a 24-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.0 pts
475k to 500k24.5%
500k to 525k19.0%
Bid
24¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
1¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
Category
KPIs, Tech, Tesla, Big Tech, Business, Elon Musk, Recurring
Scheduled end
February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$6.2K
Volume (24h)
$767
Liquidity
$14.3K
Markets
9
Leading outcome
475k to 500k — 24.5%
Resolution source
https://ir.tesla.com/press

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 475k to 500k, is priced at 24.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

475k to 500k is favored at 24.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
475k to 500k24¢24.5%-4.0 pts$89514.5%
500k to 525k19¢19.0%-1.0 pts$1.1K18.0%
400k to 425k16¢16.5%-1.0 pts$84513.7%
525k to 550k14¢13.6%-0.6 pts$4988.1%
450k to 475k14¢13.5%+4.5 pts$5709.3%
575k+12¢12.5%+1.0 pts$83713.6%
425k to 450k5¢5.3%-0.7 pts$4036.5%
<400k1¢1.1%-3.5 pts$76412.4%
550k to 575k1¢0.5%—$2403.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$6.2K has been traded on this event in total, $767 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Resolution source: https://ir.tesla.com/press

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 276 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No276$208
Oddball-PoisonYes81$20
Belated-GlueYes79$19
Putrid-LabYes54$13
Straight-WrinkleYes40$10
Direct-ChainstayYes22$5
Embarrassed-Hill-FoldYes10$2
Gleaming-HandlebarNo10$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $53 at 87.0%BUY No — $49 at 80.0%BUY No — $47 at 78.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY84.0%$11
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETYesSELL17.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY82.0%$2
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY82.0%$25
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY76.0%$2
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY76.0%$23
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$25
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$17
Oct 24, 04:17 PM ETYesSELL16.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 475k to 500k at 24.5%. Next is 500k to 525k at 19.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q4-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026??

$6.2K in total volume, with $767 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.

When does How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://ir.tesla.com/press.

What is the most likely outcome of How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

475k to 500k, priced at 24.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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