As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 475k to 500k at 24.5% in How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026? — $6.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 475k to 500k, is priced at 24.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts.
475k to 500k is favored at 24.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475k to 500k | 24¢ | 24.5% | -4.0 pts | $895 | 14.5% |
| 500k to 525k | 19¢ | 19.0% | -1.0 pts | $1.1K | 18.0% |
| 400k to 425k | 16¢ | 16.5% | -1.0 pts | $845 | 13.7% |
| 525k to 550k | 14¢ | 13.6% | -0.6 pts | $498 | 8.1% |
| 450k to 475k | 14¢ | 13.5% | +4.5 pts | $570 | 9.3% |
| 575k+ | 12¢ | 12.5% | +1.0 pts | $837 | 13.6% |
| 425k to 450k | 5¢ | 5.3% | -0.7 pts | $403 | 6.5% |
| <400k | 1¢ | 1.1% | -3.5 pts | $764 | 12.4% |
| 550k to 575k | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $240 | 3.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.2K has been traded on this event in total, $767 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Resolution source: https://ir.tesla.com/press
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 276 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 276 | $208 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 81 | $20 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 79 | $19 |
| Putrid-Lab | Yes | 54 | $13 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 40 | $10 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 22 | $5 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | Yes | 10 | $2 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 10 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 04:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 475k to 500k at 24.5%. Next is 500k to 525k at 19.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q4-2026?via=bro
$6.2K in total volume, with $767 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://ir.tesla.com/press.
475k to 500k, priced at 24.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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