As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2 at 49.5% in How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30? — $17.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2, is priced at 49.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -22.0 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, 2 has traded between 31.0% and 71.5%. It opened at 31.0% and last traded at 49.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 49.5% |
2 is favored at 49.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 50¢ | 49.5% | -4.0 pts | $5.4K | 31.6% |
| 3 | 34¢ | 34.0% | +0.5 pts | $6.0K | 35.5% |
| 1 | 6¢ | 6.0% | +1.0 pts | $3.5K | 20.5% |
| 4+ | 6¢ | 5.7% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 6.6% |
| 0 | 4¢ | 3.8% | — | $1.0K | 5.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.0K has been traded on this event in total, $429 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,367 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,367 | $690 |
| Hateful-Generation | Yes | 448 | $222 |
| Worthy-Lament | Yes | 250 | $124 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 122 | $61 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 120 | $59 |
| Shady-Dog | No | 120 | $61 |
| Big-Repair | No | 120 | $61 |
| Rare-Netball | Yes | 100 | $50 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 85 | $42 |
| Canine-Practice | Yes | 84 | $42 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 12:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 11:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2 at 49.5%. Next is 3 at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-us-aircraft-carriers-in-centcom-on-november-30?via=bro
$17.0K in total volume, with $429 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2, priced at 49.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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