As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 20%+ at 88.0% in Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut? — $10.9K traded so far.
20%+ is favored at 88.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20%+ | 88¢ | 88.0% | — | $1.3K | 12.4% |
| 25%+ | 78¢ | 78.5% | — | $1.3K | 12.2% |
| 30%+ | 30¢ | 29.5% | — | $2.2K | 20.4% |
| 35%+ | 15¢ | 15.0% | — | $6.0K | 55.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.9K has been traded on this event in total, $10.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 334 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Far-Plan | Yes | 334 | $294 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 203 | $24 |
| Weird-Ephemeris-Exception | Yes | 137 | $121 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 80 | $10 |
| Bronze-Download-Personality | No | 63 | $8 |
| Sticky-Tabernacle-Nursery | No | 60 | $7 |
| Grumpy-Invader | Yes | 50 | $44 |
| Putrid-Lab | No | 50 | $6 |
| 0x46299616… | No | 30 | $4 |
| Advanced-Mailer | No | 30 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 12:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $79 |
| Oct 24, 12:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 12:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $69 |
| Oct 24, 12:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 12:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.1% | $35 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 20%+ at 88.0%. Next is 25%+ at 78.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k3pt1-pro-hle-diamond-debut-20261023?via=bro
$10.9K in total volume, with $10.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
20%+, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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