Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 20%+ at 88.0% in Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut? — $10.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $10.9K.
Leading outcome
20%+
88%
A 88.0% price implies roughly a 88-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
20%+88.0%
25%+78.5%
Bid
87¢
Ask
89¢
Spread
2¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut?
Category
AI, Kimi, Tech, Moonshot, AI Releases, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$10.9K
Volume (24h)
$10.9K
Liquidity
$3.4K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
20%+ — 88.0%
Resolution source
https://agi.safe.ai/

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

20%+ is favored at 88.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
20%+88¢88.0%—$1.3K12.4%
25%+78¢78.5%—$1.3K12.2%
30%+30¢29.5%—$2.2K20.4%
35%+15¢15.0%—$6.0K55.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$10.9K has been traded on this event in total, $10.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 334 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Far-PlanYes334$294
Belated-GlueNo203$24
Weird-Ephemeris-ExceptionYes137$121
Perfumed-MoatNo80$10
Bronze-Download-PersonalityNo63$8
Sticky-Tabernacle-NurseryNo60$7
Grumpy-InvaderYes50$44
Putrid-LabNo50$6
0x46299616…No30$4
Advanced-MailerNo30$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $395 at 81.4%BUY No — $277 at 82.0%BUY No — $181 at 57.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$1
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL84.0%$17
Oct 24, 02:37 PM ETNoSELL69.0%$0
Oct 24, 02:37 PM ETNoBUY74.0%$38
Oct 24, 02:37 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$13
Oct 24, 12:39 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$79
Oct 24, 12:39 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$13
Oct 24, 12:38 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$69
Oct 24, 12:38 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$29
Oct 24, 12:38 PM ETYesSELL20.1%$35

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 20%+ at 88.0%. Next is 25%+ at 78.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k3pt1-pro-hle-diamond-debut-20261023?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut??

$10.9K in total volume, with $10.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.

What is the most likely outcome of Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

20%+, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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