Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1470+ at 85.5% in Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? — $13.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $13.5K.
Leading outcome
1470+
86%
A 85.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
1470+85.5%
1480+61.5%
Bid
83¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →

Market facts

Event data
Event
Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?
Category
AI, Kimi, Tech, Debut, Moonshot, AI Releases
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$13.5K
Volume (24h)
$13.5K
Liquidity
$4.7K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
1470+ — 85.5%
Resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

1470+ is favored at 85.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
1470+86¢85.5%—$1.8K13.5%
1480+62¢61.5%—$1.2K8.6%
1490+35¢35.0%—$2.3K16.9%
1500+17¢17.0%—$3.8K28.0%
1510+13¢13.0%—$4.4K33.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$13.5K has been traded on this event in total, $13.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 218 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo218$32
Infatuated-MaintainerYes136$117
Barren-ExpectancyYes130$111
Rowdy-TenementNo60$9
Oddball-PoisonYes49$42
Perfumed-MoatYes47$40
Fluid-ChurnNo37$5
Direct-ChainstayNo29$4
0x6fdb1f7a…No12$2
Grim-GarageNo11$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $299 at 85.5%SELL No — $232 at 83.0%BUY No — $119 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:34 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$0
Oct 24, 03:43 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$2
Oct 24, 03:42 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$2
Oct 24, 03:41 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:25 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$8
Oct 24, 02:20 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:20 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$112
Oct 24, 01:43 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$26
Oct 24, 01:43 PM ETYesSELL15.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:32 PM ETNoBUY65.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1470+ at 85.5%. Next is 1480+ at 61.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k3pt1-pro-text-arena-debut-20261023?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut??

$13.5K in total volume, with $13.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.

What is the most likely outcome of Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

1470+, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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