As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1470+ at 85.5% in Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? — $13.5K traded so far.
1470+ is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1470+ | 86¢ | 85.5% | — | $1.8K | 13.5% |
| 1480+ | 62¢ | 61.5% | — | $1.2K | 8.6% |
| 1490+ | 35¢ | 35.0% | — | $2.3K | 16.9% |
| 1500+ | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $3.8K | 28.0% |
| 1510+ | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $4.4K | 33.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.5K has been traded on this event in total, $13.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 218 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 218 | $32 |
| Infatuated-Maintainer | Yes | 136 | $117 |
| Barren-Expectancy | Yes | 130 | $111 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 60 | $9 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 49 | $42 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 47 | $40 |
| Fluid-Churn | No | 37 | $5 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 29 | $4 |
| 0x6fdb1f7a… | No | 12 | $2 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 11 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $112 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1470+ at 85.5%. Next is 1480+ at 61.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k3pt1-pro-text-arena-debut-20261023?via=bro
$13.5K in total volume, with $13.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
1470+, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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