As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Top 20 at 74.0% in Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut? — $11.0K traded so far.
Top 20 is favored at 74.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 20 | 74¢ | 74.0% | — | $3.3K | 30.2% |
| Top 10 | 37¢ | 37.0% | — | $2.4K | 21.4% |
| Top 5 | 10¢ | 10.5% | — | $5.3K | 48.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.0K has been traded on this event in total, $11.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 700 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 700 | $518 |
| Male-Cacao | No | 274 | $71 |
| Impressive-Kiwi | No | 100 | $26 |
| Cuddly-Future | No | 100 | $26 |
| Prize-Guard | No | 85 | $22 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 76 | $56 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 74 | $19 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 70 | $18 |
| Far-Plan | No | 65 | $17 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 40 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 62.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 02:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 62.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Top 20 at 74.0%. Next is Top 10 at 37.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k3pt1-pro-text-arena-rank-debut-20261023?via=bro
$11.0K in total volume, with $11.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
Top 20, priced at 74.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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