As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30 at 45.0% in Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...? — $14.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, is priced at 45.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +13.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, June 30 has traded between 27.0% and 45.0%. It opened at 27.0% and last traded at 45.0%.
June 30 is favored at 45.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 45¢ | 45.0% | +13.5 pts | $9.1K | 62.5% |
| December 31 | 12¢ | 11.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.5K | 37.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.6K has been traded on this event in total, $4.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481) This market will resolve to "Yes" if high-rate alchemy is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "High-rate alchemy" refers to the experimental production of stable gold-197 from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators) at an average rate of more than 800,000 gold-197 atoms per second. For reference, CERN's ALICE collaboration reported a maximum rate of approximately 89,000 gold nuclei per second in May 2025. The production rate will be calculated as the total number of gold-197 atoms produced by the irradiation, including gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation, divided by the total duration of the neutron irradiation. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,906 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trained-Sniffle | Yes | 2,906 | $1.3K |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 750 | $412 |
| Poor-Sea | No | 374 | $206 |
| Blue-Bend | No | 335 | $184 |
| Writhing-Round | No | 300 | $165 |
| Advanced-Mailer | No | 292 | $161 |
| Rewarding-Pantologist | No | 227 | $125 |
| Wobbly-Chain | Yes | 200 | $90 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 200 | $110 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 200 | $110 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.1% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 11:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 09:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.5% | $828 |
| Oct 24, 09:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 09:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.5% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 09:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 09:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 09:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $124 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30 at 45.0%. Next is December 31 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/marathon-fusions-high-rate-alchemy-confirmed-byptptpt?via=bro
$14.6K in total volume, with $4.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, priced at 45.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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