As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4700+ at 97.2% in Measles cases in U.S. by October 31? — $32.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4700+, is priced at 97.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: -0.2 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, 4700+ has traded between 44.0% and 97.8%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 97.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.2% |
4700+ is favored at 97.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4700+ | 97¢ | 97.2% | -0.7 pts | $4.4K | 13.5% |
| 4800+ | 54¢ | 54.2% | +0.1 pts | $6.4K | 19.5% |
| 4900+ | 8¢ | 7.5% | -1.0 pts | $7.8K | 23.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$32.9K has been traded on this event in total, $948 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Resolution source: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,037 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful-Thistle | Yes | 1,037 | $1.0K |
| 0x19293a29… | No | 418 | $12 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 373 | $11 |
| Jumpy-Acid | Yes | 236 | $229 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 151 | $4 |
| Limited-Spokesman | Yes | 150 | $146 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 127 | $4 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 109 | $3 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 74 | $72 |
| Untimely-Mood | No | 66 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $51 |
| Oct 24, 09:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.8% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 09:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 51.4% | $95 |
| Oct 24, 09:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 54.8% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 09:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 49.4% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 09:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.8% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 08:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.6% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 48.4% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4700+ at 97.2%. Next is 4800+ at 54.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-uptspt-by-october-31-20260928t160000000z?via=bro
$32.9K in total volume, with $948 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html.
4700+, priced at 97.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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