As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? — $7.50M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since July 02, 2026, December 31 has traded between 13.5% and 44.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 13.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 13.5% |
December 31 is favored at 13.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $773.8K | 10.3% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 1.2% | -1.1 pts | $126.6K | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.50M has been traded on this event in total, $7.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 45,608 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 45,608 | $6.2K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 25,080 | $21.7K |
| Sticky-Closing | No | 20,507 | $17.7K |
| Sophisticated-Honoree-Populist | No | 17,781 | $15.4K |
| Angry-Evaluation | Yes | 13,735 | $1.9K |
| Eminent-Accordion | Yes | 13,413 | $1.8K |
| Digital-Academy | No | 12,703 | $11.0K |
| Splendid-Collection | Yes | 12,267 | $1.7K |
| Hateful-Generation | Yes | 11,872 | $1.6K |
| Ajar-Sportsman | No | 9,844 | $8.5K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $135 |
| Oct 24, 04:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $271 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $172 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $880 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $28 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. Next is October 31 at 1.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by?via=bro
$7.50M in total volume, with $7.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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