As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 82.0% in Muse Charm released by...? — $4.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 82.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +18.5 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, December 31 has traded between 52.0% and 86.0%. It opened at 86.0% and last traded at 82.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.0% |
December 31 is favored at 82.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 82¢ | 82.0% | +1.0 pts | $2.4K | 50.7% |
| December 15 | 72¢ | 72.0% | — | $2.4K | 49.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 75¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta officially releases the Muse Charm by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Muse Charm" refers to the device unveiled by Meta on September 23, 2026, including its final commercial version under any name or branding. Any name change or rebranding of the Muse Charm will have no bearing on this market's resolution. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public in the United States and shipments to public customers or availability for customer pickup must have begun by the specified deadline. Availability in selected US locations or in limited quantities will qualify. Access restricted to selected testers or invitees will not qualify. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements and product pages from Meta; however, availability information from authorized retailers or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 262 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 262 | $215 |
| Apprehensive-Protection | No | 197 | $35 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 173 | $31 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 122 | $100 |
| Understated-Patient | Yes | 120 | $98 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 49 | $9 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 30 | $5 |
| Tall-Impudence | No | 22 | $4 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $4 |
| All-Legislator | No | 20 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 05:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 05:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 02:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 02:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $35 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 82.0%. Next is December 15 at 72.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/muse-charm-released-by?via=bro
$4.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.