Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 50.5% in Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...? — $2.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $106.
Leading outcome
January 31
50%
A 50.5% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +6.5 pts7D +14.0 pts
January 3150.5%
December 3143.0%
Bid
47¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
7¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 08, 2026: 27.5% – 64.0% · Opened at 27.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Haiku, Claude, Anthropic, Recurring, AI Releases
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.0K
Volume (24h)
$106
Liquidity
$320
Markets
2
Leading outcome
January 31 — 50.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 50.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.5 pts; past week: +14.0 pts.

Since October 08, 2026, January 31 has traded between 27.5% and 64.0%. It opened at 27.5% and last traded at 50.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202639.0%
Oct 18, 202634.0%
Oct 19, 202634.5%
Oct 20, 202632.5%
Oct 22, 202644.5%
Oct 23, 202647.0%
Oct 24, 202650.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

January 31 is favored at 50.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
January 3150¢50.5%+6.5 pts$1.1K53.6%
December 3143¢43.0%-0.5 pts$92146.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 54¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.0K has been traded on this event in total, $106 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 or Claude Haiku 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 6, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Haiku 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 209 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo209$104
Spicy-PrintNo127$63
Direct-ChainstayYes77$39
Bumpy-TouchYes50$25
Straight-WrinkleYes47$24
Oddball-PoisonYes40$20
Apt-AntecedentYes20$10
0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70ddddaYes20$10
Gleaming-HandlebarYes20$10
Notable-Nun-CuttingYes20$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $66 at 52.2%BUY No — $42 at 70.0%BUY No — $29 at 73.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 09:40 AM ETNoBUY53.0%$5
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETYesSELL51.0%$8
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETYesBUY49.0%$0
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETNoBUY54.0%$9
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETNoBUY49.0%$2
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETNoBUY49.0%$9
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETNoBUY49.0%$0
Oct 24, 03:53 AM ETYesBUY49.0%$9
Oct 24, 02:39 AM ETYesBUY47.0%$9
Oct 23, 06:16 AM ETNoSELL50.0%$2

Related markets

More AI

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 50.5%. Next is December 31 at 43.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20261008132000000?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...??

$2.0K in total volume, with $106 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

January 31, priced at 50.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.