As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 40.5% in Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...? — $2.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 40.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +5.5 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, January 31 has traded between 33.0% and 76.5%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 40.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 40.5% |
January 31 is favored at 40.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 40¢ | 40.5% | — | $1.1K | 48.1% |
| December 31 | 28¢ | 28.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.1K | 51.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 33¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 167 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 167 | $99 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 70 | $42 |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | Yes | 65 | $26 |
| Jaunty-Communist | Yes | 60 | $24 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 52 | $21 |
| Heartfelt-Eyrie | Yes | 40 | $16 |
| Absolute-Cockpit-Dungarees | Yes | 40 | $16 |
| Putrid-Lab | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Stark-Personnel | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 20 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $59 |
| Oct 21, 06:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 03:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $32 |
| Oct 21, 03:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 01:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 01:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 04:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 40.5%. Next is December 31 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20260929100500000?via=bro
$2.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
January 31, priced at 40.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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