Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 40.5% in Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...? — $2.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
January 31
40%
A 40.5% price implies roughly a 40-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +5.5 pts
January 3140.5%
December 3128.0%
Bid
24¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
33¢
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Range since September 29, 2026: 33.0% – 76.5% · Opened at 64.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Claude, Sonnet, Anthropic, Recurring, AI Releases
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.2K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$958
Markets
2
Leading outcome
January 31 — 40.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 40.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +5.5 pts.

Since September 29, 2026, January 31 has traded between 33.0% and 76.5%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 40.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202642.0%
Oct 18, 202641.0%
Oct 19, 202639.5%
Oct 20, 202640.5%
Oct 22, 202639.5%
Oct 23, 202640.5%
Oct 24, 202640.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

January 31 is favored at 40.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
January 3140¢40.5%—$1.1K48.1%
December 3128¢28.0%+0.5 pts$1.1K51.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 33¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 167 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo167$99
Oddball-PoisonNo70$42
Silver-Eyebrows-InstructionYes65$26
Jaunty-CommunistYes60$24
Straight-WrinkleYes52$21
Heartfelt-EyrieYes40$16
Absolute-Cockpit-DungareesYes40$16
Putrid-LabYes20$8
Stark-PersonnelYes20$8
Direct-ChainstayNo20$12

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $82 at 55.0%SELL No — $59 at 74.0%BUY No — $42 at 67.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 07:35 AM ETYesBUY36.0%$7
Oct 22, 06:27 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 22, 06:27 PM ETNoSELL74.0%$59
Oct 21, 06:35 PM ETYesBUY31.0%$4
Oct 21, 03:32 PM ETNoBUY61.0%$32
Oct 21, 03:17 PM ETNoBUY58.0%$12
Oct 21, 01:45 PM ETNoBUY65.0%$6
Oct 21, 01:44 PM ETNoBUY65.0%$6
Oct 21, 01:44 PM ETNoBUY64.0%$6
Oct 20, 04:25 PM ETYesBUY41.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 40.5%. Next is December 31 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20260929100500000?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...??

$2.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

January 31, priced at 40.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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