As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 31.5% in Next Gemini Argon released by...? — $4.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 31.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -14.5 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, January 31 has traded between 8.0% and 43.0%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 31.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 31.5% |
January 31 is favored at 31.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 32¢ | 31.5% | -14.5 pts | $2.4K | 60.9% |
| December 31 | 22¢ | 22.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.5K | 39.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $156 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 563 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | No | 563 | $385 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 241 | $76 |
| Negative-Hunting | Yes | 100 | $32 |
| Sane-Documentation | Yes | 90 | $28 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 90 | $28 |
| White-Squirrel | No | 58 | $39 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 40 | $13 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 40 | $13 |
| Excited-Someplace | Yes | 35 | $11 |
| Absolute-Cockpit-Dungarees | No | 25 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 09:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 11:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 11:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 31.5%. Next is December 31 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-argon-released-byptptpt-20261014?via=bro
$4.0K in total volume, with $156 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
January 31, priced at 31.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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