Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Gemini Argon released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 31.5% in Next Gemini Argon released by...? — $4.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $156.
Leading outcome
January 31
32%
A 31.5% price implies roughly a 32-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −14.5 pts7D +6.0 pts
January 3131.5%
December 3122.0%
Bid
29¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
5¢
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Range since October 15, 2026: 8.0% – 43.0% · Opened at 26.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Gemini Argon released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Argon, Gemini, google, AI Releases
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.0K
Volume (24h)
$156
Liquidity
$1.5K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
January 31 — 31.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 31.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -14.5 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.

Since October 15, 2026, January 31 has traded between 8.0% and 43.0%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 31.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202626.0%
Oct 16, 202625.5%
Oct 18, 202613.0%
Oct 19, 20268.0%
Oct 20, 202629.0%
Oct 23, 202643.0%
Oct 24, 202631.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

January 31 is favored at 31.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
January 3132¢31.5%-14.5 pts$2.4K60.9%
December 3122¢22.0%-1.5 pts$1.5K39.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $156 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 563 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sore-PitchingNo563$385
Belated-GlueYes241$76
Negative-HuntingYes100$32
Sane-DocumentationYes90$28
Sparse-CookieYes90$28
White-SquirrelNo58$39
Oddball-PoisonYes40$13
Straight-WrinkleYes40$13
Excited-SomeplaceYes35$11
Absolute-Cockpit-DungareesNo25$17

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $103 at 79.0%SELL Yes — $80 at 24.3%SELL No — $77 at 71.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:45 PM ETYesSELL16.0%$3
Oct 24, 07:37 PM ETNoBUY76.0%$15
Oct 24, 01:01 PM ETYesBUY32.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:57 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$14
Oct 24, 11:39 AM ETNoBUY73.0%$15
Oct 24, 11:39 AM ETNoBUY66.0%$26
Oct 24, 09:22 AM ETYesBUY27.0%$5
Oct 23, 11:50 PM ETNoSELL76.0%$8
Oct 23, 11:58 AM ETNoBUY77.0%$15
Oct 23, 11:41 AM ETYesBUY35.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Gemini Argon released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 31.5%. Next is December 31 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-argon-released-byptptpt-20261014?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Gemini Argon released by...??

$4.0K in total volume, with $156 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Gemini Argon released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Gemini Argon released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

January 31, priced at 31.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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