As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1470+ at 34.0% in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? — $313.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1470+, is priced at 34.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts.
1470+ is favored at 34.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1470+ | 34¢ | 34.0% | +2.5 pts | $655 | 0.2% |
| 1480+ | 25¢ | 25.0% | +2.5 pts | $62.1K | 19.8% |
| 1490+ | 25¢ | 24.9% | +1.6 pts | $73.0K | 23.3% |
| 1495+ | 24¢ | 23.5% | — | $54.7K | 17.4% |
| 1500+ | 19¢ | 19.0% | -3.5 pts | $64.5K | 20.6% |
| 1510+ | 15¢ | 15.4% | -5.8 pts | $58.7K | 18.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$313.6K has been traded on this event in total, $3.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 195 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 195 | $66 |
| Normal-Poet | No | 145 | $96 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 20 | $13 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 12 | $8 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 11 | $8 |
| Unfinished-Belt | No | 7 | $5 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 4 | $1 |
| Bowed-Headlight | No | 4 | $3 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 12:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.1% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 10:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.4% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1470+ at 34.0%. Next is 1480+ at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-arena-debut?via=bro
$313.6K in total volume, with $3.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
1470+, priced at 34.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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