As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31 at 54.5% in Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...? — $779 traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, is priced at 54.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -14.5 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, March 31 has traded between 36.5% and 72.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 57.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.5% |
March 31 is favored at 54.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 55¢ | 54.5% | -3.0 pts | $739 | 94.9% |
| January 31 | 40¢ | 40.0% | -9.5 pts | $40 | 5.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 61¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$779 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Large model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Large" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Large 3 or Mistral Large 4 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Large 5. A new Mistral Large model released after Mistral Large 4 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-large-2411, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 4.0 or below, such as Mistral Large 4 (released in public preview on October 6, 2026), including its planned open-weights release, general-availability promotion, or any other rollout or snapshot of it, and models whose name does not include "Large," such as Mistral Medium 3.5, Mistral Small 4, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 54 | $29 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 40 | $18 |
| Fuzzy-Draft | Yes | 25 | $14 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 20 | $9 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 19 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 12:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 12:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 30.0% | $12 |
| Oct 16, 12:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $48 |
| Oct 16, 07:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 16, 06:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 12:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 13, 04:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 13, 04:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 42.0% | $8 |
| Oct 13, 03:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 13, 03:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $48 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31 at 54.5%. Next is January 31 at 40.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-large-4pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$779 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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