Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31 at 54.5% in Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...? — $779 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
March 31
55%
A 54.5% price implies roughly a 55-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.0 pts7D −14.5 pts
March 3154.5%
January 3140.0%
Bid
24¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
61¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 07, 2026: 36.5% – 72.0% · Opened at 49.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, mistral, AI Releases
Scheduled end
March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$779
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$294
Markets
2
Leading outcome
March 31 — 54.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, March 31, is priced at 54.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -14.5 pts.

Since October 07, 2026, March 31 has traded between 36.5% and 72.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 57.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202660.5%
Oct 16, 202669.0%
Oct 18, 202670.0%
Oct 19, 202668.0%
Oct 20, 202669.0%
Oct 22, 202672.0%
Oct 23, 202657.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

March 31 is favored at 54.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
March 3155¢54.5%-3.0 pts$73994.9%
January 3140¢40.0%-9.5 pts$405.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 61¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$779 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Large model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Large" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Large 3 or Mistral Large 4 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Large 5. A new Mistral Large model released after Mistral Large 4 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-large-2411, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 4.0 or below, such as Mistral Large 4 (released in public preview on October 6, 2026), including its planned open-weights release, general-availability promotion, or any other rollout or snapshot of it, and models whose name does not include "Large," such as Mistral Medium 3.5, Mistral Small 4, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Direct-ChainstayYes54$29
Skeletal-LiverNo40$18
Fuzzy-DraftYes25$14
Gripping-AbolishmentNo20$9
Belated-GlueNo19$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $48 at 60.0%BUY Yes — $48 at 48.0%BUY No — $39 at 49.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 12:00 PM ETNoSELL25.0%$5
Oct 16, 12:16 PM ETNoSELL30.0%$12
Oct 16, 12:07 PM ETYesBUY60.0%$48
Oct 16, 07:14 AM ETNoBUY66.0%$13
Oct 16, 06:54 AM ETYesBUY22.0%$4
Oct 14, 12:46 AM ETNoBUY40.0%$8
Oct 13, 04:44 AM ETNoSELL45.0%$9
Oct 13, 04:06 AM ETNoSELL42.0%$8
Oct 13, 03:41 AM ETYesBUY49.0%$10
Oct 13, 03:41 AM ETYesBUY48.0%$48

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31 at 54.5%. Next is January 31 at 40.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-large-4pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...??

$779 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Mistral Large (4.1+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

March 31, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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