As of October 24, 2026, 09:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 58.5% in Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...? — $585 traded so far.
The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 58.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, January 31 has traded between 30.0% and 59.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 58.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 58.5% |
January 31 is favored at 58.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 58¢ | 58.5% | — | $342 | 58.5% |
| November 30 | 45¢ | 45.0% | -7.5 pts | $243 | 41.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 69¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$585 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Medium model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Medium" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Medium 3.1 or Mistral Medium 3.5 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Medium 4. A new Mistral Medium model released after Mistral Medium 3.5 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-medium-2508, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 3.5 or below, such as Mistral Medium 3.5 (released April 28, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, and models whose name does not include "Medium," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Small 4, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 54 | $23 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $12 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | Yes | 20 | $12 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 16 | $9 |
| Muted-Accuracy | No | 5 | $2 |
| Motherly-Parliament-Lament | Yes | 4 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 01:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 11:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $13 |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $68 |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $22 |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $22 |
| Oct 11, 02:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $6 |
| Oct 11, 01:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 10, 12:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 10, 03:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $36 |
| Oct 10, 03:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 58.5%. Next is November 30 at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-medium-3pt6-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$585 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
January 31, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.