Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 58.5% in Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...? — $585 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
January 31
58%
A 58.5% price implies roughly a 58-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.5 pts
January 3158.5%
November 3045.0%
Bid
24¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
69¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 07, 2026: 30.0% – 59.5% · Opened at 48.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, mistral, AI Releases
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$585
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$237
Markets
2
Leading outcome
January 31 — 58.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 58.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts.

Since October 07, 2026, January 31 has traded between 30.0% and 59.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 58.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202647.0%
Oct 18, 202659.5%
Oct 19, 202659.0%
Oct 20, 202658.0%
Oct 22, 202658.0%
Oct 23, 202658.5%
Oct 24, 202658.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

January 31 is favored at 58.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
January 3158¢58.5%—$34258.5%
November 3045¢45.0%-7.5 pts$24341.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 69¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$585 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Medium model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Medium" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Medium 3.1 or Mistral Medium 3.5 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Medium 4. A new Mistral Medium model released after Mistral Medium 3.5 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-medium-2508, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 3.5 or below, such as Mistral Medium 3.5 (released April 28, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, and models whose name does not include "Medium," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Small 4, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo54$23
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes20$12
Gripping-AbolishmentYes20$12
Oddball-PoisonYes16$9
Muted-AccuracyNo5$2
Motherly-Parliament-LamentYes4$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $68 at 56.0%BUY No — $36 at 51.0%BUY No — $22 at 55.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 19, 01:47 PM ETNoSELL27.0%$5
Oct 12, 11:35 PM ETNoBUY57.0%$13
Oct 12, 11:34 PM ETNoBUY56.0%$68
Oct 12, 11:34 PM ETNoBUY55.0%$22
Oct 12, 11:34 PM ETNoBUY55.0%$22
Oct 11, 02:56 AM ETYesBUY32.0%$6
Oct 11, 01:23 AM ETYesSELL15.0%$3
Oct 10, 12:45 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$2
Oct 10, 03:58 AM ETNoBUY51.0%$36
Oct 10, 03:34 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$16

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 58.5%. Next is November 30 at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-medium-3pt6-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...??

$585 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

January 31, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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