Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price February 28 at 78.5% in Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...? — $1.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $20.
Leading outcome
February 28
78%
A 78.5% price implies roughly a 78-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D +29.0 pts
February 2878.5%
December 3139.0%
Bid
77¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 07, 2026: 34.0% – 79.0% · Opened at 48.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, mistral, AI Releases
Scheduled end
February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.8K
Volume (24h)
$20
Liquidity
$1.0K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
February 28 — 78.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, February 28, is priced at 78.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +29.0 pts.

Since October 07, 2026, February 28 has traded between 34.0% and 79.0%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 79.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202650.5%
Oct 18, 202649.5%
Oct 19, 202649.5%
Oct 20, 202672.0%
Oct 22, 202673.0%
Oct 23, 202678.0%
Oct 24, 202679.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

February 28 is favored at 78.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
February 2878¢78.5%+0.5 pts$1.4K78.7%
December 3139¢39.0%-4.5 pts$38521.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.8K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Small model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Small" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Small 3.2 or Mistral Small 4 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Small 5. A new Mistral Small model released after Mistral Small 4 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-small-2603, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 4.0 or below, such as Mistral Small 4 (released March 16, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, experimental or Labs variants such as Mistral Small Creative, and models whose name does not include "Small," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Medium 3.5, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 254 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sore-PitchingYes254$199
Belated-GlueNo204$44
Oddball-PoisonNo40$9
Attentive-CrewmanYes40$31
Gripping-AbolishmentYes36$28
Hideous-RacerNo20$4
Required-HornNo20$4
Apt-AntecedentNo20$4
Bossy-Birdcage-PeriodNo20$4
Interesting-EliteNo10$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $128 at 50.4%BUY No — $38 at 45.0%BUY Yes — $33 at 44.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:40 AM ETNoBUY21.0%$4
Oct 23, 12:05 PM ETYesBUY75.0%$8
Oct 23, 12:05 PM ETYesBUY75.0%$8
Oct 23, 12:05 PM ETNoSELL25.0%$8
Oct 22, 12:20 AM ETNoSELL22.0%$4
Oct 21, 11:50 PM ETYesBUY74.0%$15
Oct 21, 07:29 PM ETNoBUY28.9%$12
Oct 21, 07:29 PM ETNoBUY25.0%$21
Oct 20, 06:41 PM ETNoSELL36.0%$7
Oct 20, 02:43 PM ETNoSELL38.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is February 28 at 78.5%. Next is December 31 at 39.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-small-4pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...??

$1.8K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

February 28, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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