As of October 24, 2026, 09:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price February 28 at 78.5% in Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...? — $1.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, February 28, is priced at 78.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +29.0 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, February 28 has traded between 34.0% and 79.0%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 79.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 79.0% |
February 28 is favored at 78.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | 78¢ | 78.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.4K | 78.7% |
| December 31 | 39¢ | 39.0% | -4.5 pts | $385 | 21.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.8K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Small model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Small" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Small 3.2 or Mistral Small 4 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Small 5. A new Mistral Small model released after Mistral Small 4 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-small-2603, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 4.0 or below, such as Mistral Small 4 (released March 16, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, experimental or Labs variants such as Mistral Small Creative, and models whose name does not include "Small," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Medium 3.5, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 254 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 254 | $199 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 204 | $44 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 40 | $9 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 40 | $31 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | Yes | 36 | $28 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 20 | $4 |
| Required-Horn | No | 20 | $4 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $4 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 20 | $4 |
| Interesting-Elite | No | 10 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 12:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 12:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 12:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 25.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 12:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 11:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 21, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.9% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $21 |
| Oct 20, 06:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 02:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 38.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is February 28 at 78.5%. Next is December 31 at 39.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-small-4pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$1.8K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
February 28, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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