Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31 at 67.0% in Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...? — $2.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $68.
Leading outcome
January 31
67%
A 67.0% price implies roughly a 67-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.0 pts7D −16.5 pts
January 3167.0%
December 3149.0%
Bid
64¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
6¢
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Range since October 12, 2026: 52.0% – 85.0% · Opened at 81.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?
Category
AI, Meta, Tech, AI Releases, Muse Wonder
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.5K
Volume (24h)
$68
Liquidity
$798
Markets
2
Leading outcome
January 31 — 67.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, January 31, is priced at 67.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -16.5 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, January 31 has traded between 52.0% and 85.0%. It opened at 81.0% and last traded at 67.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202662.0%
Oct 18, 202684.0%
Oct 19, 202685.0%
Oct 20, 202666.0%
Oct 22, 202665.5%
Oct 23, 202666.5%
Oct 24, 202667.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

January 31 is favored at 67.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
January 3167¢67.0%-3.0 pts$1.3K52.5%
December 3149¢49.0%—$1.2K47.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $68 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Wonder model (1.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Wonder" and be designated as version 1.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.1 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Wonder (muse-wonder-1.0) or Muse Wonder Full (muse-wonder-full-1.0) would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Wonder 2, while models whose name does not include "Wonder," such as Muse Spark or Muse Glimmer models, or which retain a version designation of 1.0 or below, such as Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (both released October 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of either, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 209 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes209$140
Sore-PitchingNo170$56
0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70ddddaYes120$80
Evil-RowNo120$40
Direct-ChainstayYes69$46
Oddball-PoisonNo59$20
Piercing-FormationYes40$27
Each-CaliberNo30$10
Determined-ProwNo30$10
Experienced-Smell-RailroadYes20$13

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $158 at 62.8%BUY No — $85 at 28.4%BUY No — $50 at 33.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:43 AM ETNoSELL30.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:43 AM ETYesBUY67.0%$36
Oct 24, 12:43 AM ETYesBUY70.0%$10
Oct 22, 07:21 PM ETNoBUY30.0%$6
Oct 22, 02:13 PM ETNoBUY25.2%$5
Oct 22, 02:13 PM ETNoBUY24.0%$5
Oct 22, 01:22 PM ETNoSELL24.0%$5
Oct 22, 01:01 PM ETYesBUY69.0%$41
Oct 22, 09:01 AM ETNoSELL29.0%$6
Oct 22, 04:27 AM ETYesBUY66.0%$40

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31 at 67.0%. Next is December 31 at 49.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-wonder-1pt1-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...??

$2.5K in total volume, with $68 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

January 31, priced at 67.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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