Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 70.0% in Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...? — $2.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $67.
Leading outcome
December 31
70%
A 70.0% price implies roughly a 70-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +14.5 pts7D −23.5 pts30D −18.0 pts
December 3170.0%
October 3138.6%
Bid
69¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 31, 2026: 50.0% – 93.5% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...?
Category
AI, Qwen, Tech, Alibaba, AI Releases, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.9K
Volume (24h)
$67
Liquidity
$493
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 70.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 70.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +14.5 pts; past week: -23.5 pts; past month: -18.0 pts.

Since August 31, 2026, December 31 has traded between 50.0% and 93.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 70.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202693.5%
Oct 18, 202671.5%
Oct 19, 202673.5%
Oct 20, 202685.0%
Oct 23, 202665.5%
Oct 24, 202670.0%
Oct 24, 202670.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 70.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3170¢70.0%+14.5 pts$95733.5%
October 3139¢38.6%+25.1 pts$1.9K66.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 69¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.9K has been traded on this event in total, $67 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Flash," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Flash tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Flash or Qwen3.8-Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Flash, while models whose name does not include "Flash" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Flash, Qwen3.8-Plus, or Qwen3.9-Max, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen3-coder-flash, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 248 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sore-PitchingYes248$173
Belated-GlueNo198$59
Oddball-PoisonNo30$9
Known-UseYes30$21
Close-Fitness-NightclubYes20$14
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationNo20$6
Evil-RowNo20$6
Plastic-DuckNo12$4
Venerated-WormNo11$3
Exemplary-DecisionmakingNo5$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $209 at 69.3%BUY No — $157 at 95.7%BUY No — $77 at 90.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:20 PM ETNoBUY30.0%$3
Oct 24, 03:20 PM ETNoBUY30.0%$9
Oct 23, 09:23 PM ETYesBUY67.0%$20
Oct 23, 06:54 PM ETNoSELL83.7%$7
Oct 23, 06:54 PM ETNoSELL85.4%$27
Oct 23, 10:44 AM ETNoBUY30.0%$3
Oct 23, 10:15 AM ETNoBUY62.8%$13
Oct 23, 07:32 AM ETYesBUY65.0%$6
Oct 23, 04:49 AM ETYesBUY11.4%$2
Oct 23, 02:35 AM ETNoBUY95.7%$157

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 70.0%. Next is October 31 at 38.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-qwen-flash-3pt9-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...??

$2.9K in total volume, with $67 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 70.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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