Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 15 at 91.0% in OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...? — $3.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $229.
Leading outcome
November 15
91%
A 91.0% price implies roughly a 91-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +3.0 pts
November 1591.0%
October 3162.5%
Bid
90¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 20, 2026: 77.5% – 88.0% · Opened at 86.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?
Category
AI, Tech, OpenAI, chatgpt, AI Safety, sam altman, AI Regulation
Scheduled end
November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.8K
Volume (24h)
$229
Liquidity
$914
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 15 — 91.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 15, is priced at 91.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts.

Since October 20, 2026, November 15 has traded between 77.5% and 88.0%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 88.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 15 is favored at 91.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 1591¢91.0%+3.0 pts$1.3K34.8%
October 3162¢62.5%-2.5 pts$2.5K65.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 90¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.8K has been traded on this event in total, $229 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 338 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Imperturbable-IceYes338$308
Thorough-NeighbourhoodYes321$292
Belated-GlueNo209$19
Far-PlanNo152$14
Frail-ParsnipNo51$5
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes50$45
Velvety-StairNo44$4
0x8fcec507…No43$4
Oddball-PoisonNo34$3
Second-Hand-NeighborhoodNo25$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $279 at 82.5%BUY Yes — $205 at 68.1%BUY No — $119 at 33.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:09 PM ETYesBUY89.0%$18
Oct 24, 01:59 PM ETNoSELL10.0%$0
Oct 24, 10:56 AM ETNoSELL35.0%$19
Oct 24, 10:49 AM ETYesSELL59.0%$1
Oct 24, 10:34 AM ETYesSELL59.0%$2
Oct 24, 10:34 AM ETNoBUY37.0%$1
Oct 24, 10:34 AM ETNoBUY37.0%$5
Oct 24, 10:34 AM ETNoBUY37.0%$7
Oct 24, 10:34 AM ETNoBUY36.3%$20
Oct 24, 08:05 AM ETYesSELL64.0%$33

Related markets

More AI

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 15 at 91.0%. Next is October 31 at 62.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261019?via=bro

How much money has been traded on OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...??

$3.8K in total volume, with $229 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 15, priced at 91.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.