As of October 24, 2026, 09:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.0% in OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026? — $88 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, No has traded between 50.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.0% |
No is favored at 93.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 93.0% | -0.5 pts | $88 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 7.0% | +0.5 pts | $88 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$88 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/). A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 43 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simple-Violation | No | 43 | $40 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 23 | $2 |
| Chilly-Latitude | Yes | 11 | $1 |
| Pale-Proof | Yes | 10 | $1 |
| Uncomfortable-Mercury | No | 8 | $8 |
| Leading-Joint | Yes | 7 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 08:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 07, 10:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $8 |
| Sep 18, 05:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Sep 13, 07:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Sep 11, 07:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Sep 11, 02:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $42 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.0%. Next is Yes at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-retracts-navier-stokes-solution-in-2026-1?via=bro
$88 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/.
No, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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