Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 58.0% in OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? — $3.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
OpenAI
58%
A 58.0% price implies roughly a 58-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −2.0 pts30D −17.0 pts
OpenAI58.0%
Anthropic42.0%
Bid
57¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 51.5% – 81.0% · Opened at 51.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
Category
AI, Math, Tech, OpenAI, Science, Anthropic, CMI, Millennium Prize, AI Achievements, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$762
Markets
1
Leading outcome
OpenAI — 58.0%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 58.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -17.0 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 51.5% and 81.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 58.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202659.0%
Oct 17, 202660.0%
Oct 18, 202662.0%
Oct 19, 202660.0%
Oct 20, 202658.5%
Oct 22, 202658.0%
Oct 23, 202658.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

OpenAI is favored at 58.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
OpenAI58¢58.0%—$3.7K100.0%
Anthropic42¢42.0%—$3.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so. If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution. The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the company, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 107 shares of Anthropic.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Direct-ChainstayAnthropic107$45
Sore-PitchingOpenAI89$52
Belated-GlueOpenAI65$38
Pretty-BiplaneAnthropic36$15
Present-LambkinOpenAI32$19
Jaunty-CommunistOpenAI25$14
Wan-RatepayerAnthropic21$9
Perfumed-MoatAnthropic20$9
Plastic-DuckOpenAI20$12
Wet-EventAnthropic20$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL OpenAI — $240 at 77.9%BUY OpenAI — $88 at 63.0%SELL OpenAI — $64 at 75.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 18, 03:32 AM ETAnthropicSELL36.0%$1
Oct 18, 12:42 AM ETOpenAIBUY63.0%$1
Oct 17, 05:11 AM ETAnthropicSELL41.0%$4
Oct 17, 05:08 AM ETOpenAIBUY59.0%$6
Oct 17, 05:08 AM ETOpenAIBUY59.0%$6
Oct 17, 05:08 AM ETOpenAIBUY59.0%$6
Oct 17, 05:08 AM ETAnthropicSELL41.0%$4
Oct 14, 09:53 PM ETOpenAISELL50.0%$5
Oct 14, 06:53 PM ETOpenAISELL56.0%$11
Oct 14, 10:05 AM ETOpenAIBUY63.0%$29

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 58.0%. Next is Anthropic at 42.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-vspt-anthropic-first-to-another-millennium-prize-solution?via=bro

How much money has been traded on OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize??

$3.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.

What is the most likely outcome of OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?, according to Polymarket traders?

OpenAI, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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