As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 58.0% in OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? — $3.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 58.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -17.0 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 51.5% and 81.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 58.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.0% |
OpenAI is favored at 58.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 58¢ | 58.0% | — | $3.7K | 100.0% |
| Anthropic | 42¢ | 42.0% | — | $3.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so. If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution. The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the company, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 107 shares of Anthropic.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-Chainstay | Anthropic | 107 | $45 |
| Sore-Pitching | OpenAI | 89 | $52 |
| Belated-Glue | OpenAI | 65 | $38 |
| Pretty-Biplane | Anthropic | 36 | $15 |
| Present-Lambkin | OpenAI | 32 | $19 |
| Jaunty-Communist | OpenAI | 25 | $14 |
| Wan-Ratepayer | Anthropic | 21 | $9 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Anthropic | 20 | $9 |
| Plastic-Duck | OpenAI | 20 | $12 |
| Wet-Event | Anthropic | 20 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 03:32 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 36.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 12:42 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 63.0% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 05:11 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 41.0% | $4 |
| Oct 17, 05:08 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 17, 05:08 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 17, 05:08 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 17, 05:08 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 41.0% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 09:53 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 50.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 06:53 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 56.0% | $11 |
| Oct 14, 10:05 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 63.0% | $29 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 58.0%. Next is Anthropic at 42.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-vspt-anthropic-first-to-another-millennium-prize-solution?via=bro
$3.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.
OpenAI, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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