Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.5% in Pakistan military action against Yemen by...? — $96.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $238.
Leading outcome
December 31
12%
A 11.5% price implies roughly a 12-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −4.0 pts30D −2.0 pts
December 3111.5%
October 314.0%
Bid
10¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 10.5% – 56.0% · Opened at 40.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
Category
Yemen, Military, Pakistan, Geopolitics, Middle East, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET
Total volume
$96.6K
Volume (24h)
$238
Liquidity
$23.7K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 11.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -4.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, December 31 has traded between 10.5% and 56.0%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 12.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202615.5%
Oct 16, 202615.5%
Oct 18, 202615.5%
Oct 19, 202614.5%
Oct 20, 202613.0%
Oct 22, 202611.5%
Oct 23, 202612.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 11.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3112¢11.5%-0.5 pts$22.9K23.7%
October 314¢4.0%—$61.8K64.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$96.6K has been traded on this event in total, $238 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,000 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Stark-TherapyNo2,000$1.8K
Smoggy-SunglassesNo1,321$1.2K
Unfit-ColeslawYes1,100$126
Whirlwind-PartnershipYes935$107
Sore-Embarrassment-CrisisYes588$68
Spiffy-Enactment-StrengthNo490$433
Obvious-EyebrowNo453$401
Belated-GlueYes390$45
NoSteinNoGateYes390$45
Pale-BirdwatcherYes300$34

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1,000 at 96.1%BUY No — $431 at 88.0%BUY No — $311 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:05 PM ETNoBUY97.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:46 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$13
Oct 24, 10:50 AM ETYesSELL3.0%$0
Oct 24, 07:41 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:25 AM ETNoSELL86.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:25 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$130
Oct 24, 04:25 AM ETNoSELL86.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:25 AM ETNoBUY89.0%$5
Oct 23, 09:35 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Pakistan military action against Yemen by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.5%. Next is October 31 at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pakistan-military-action-against-yemen-by-20260909?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Pakistan military action against Yemen by...??

$96.6K in total volume, with $238 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Pakistan military action against Yemen by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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