As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Under 5% at 34.5% in Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season? — $15.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Under 5%, is priced at 34.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +8.0 pts; past month: +26.5 pts.
Since September 08, 2026, Under 5% has traded between 6.5% and 34.5%. It opened at 12.0% and last traded at 34.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 34.5% |
Under 5% is favored at 34.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 34¢ | 34.5% | +3.0 pts | $2.9K | 18.5% |
| 40% to 59.99% | 34¢ | 34.5% | +6.5 pts | $3.5K | 22.0% |
| 20% to 39.99% | 29¢ | 29.0% | +4.5 pts | $5.4K | 34.1% |
| 5% to 19.99% | 24¢ | 23.5% | -9.5 pts | $2.6K | 16.8% |
| 60% or more | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $1.3K | 8.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 41¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.7K has been traded on this event in total, $8 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season. For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above. For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 589 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 589 | $386 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 184 | $63 |
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 176 | $61 |
| Crazykekbr | Yes | 161 | $56 |
| 0x3a9dad53… | Yes | 93 | $32 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 59 | $39 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 52 | $18 |
| Livid-Television | No | 50 | $33 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 13 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 02:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.7% | $107 |
| Oct 20, 04:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.7% | $21 |
| Oct 20, 07:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 05:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $11 |
| Oct 18, 03:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $8 |
| Oct 15, 02:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 01:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $35 |
| Oct 13, 10:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $14 |
| Oct 13, 06:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $75 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Under 5% at 34.5%. Next is 40% to 59.99% at 34.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/peak-severe-drought-in-minas-gerais-during-the-coffee-growing-season?via=bro
$15.7K in total volume, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Under 5%, priced at 34.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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