As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 29 at 84.0% in Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — $259.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, September 29, is priced at 84.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +16.0 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, September 29 has traded between 22.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 84.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.0% |
September 29 is favored at 84.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 29 | 84¢ | 84.0% | +4.0 pts | $9.8K | 3.8% |
| September 21 | 74¢ | 74.0% | +4.5 pts | $28.4K | 11.0% |
| September 24 | 73¢ | 73.0% | +13.5 pts | $40.2K | 15.5% |
| September 30 | 60¢ | 60.2% | -1.1 pts | $41.3K | 15.9% |
| September 28 | 60¢ | 60.0% | -3.0 pts | $39.0K | 15.0% |
| September 23 | 53¢ | 53.0% | +2.5 pts | $11.0K | 4.3% |
| September 27 | 52¢ | 52.5% | +0.5 pts | $13.9K | 5.3% |
| September 25 | 45¢ | 45.0% | — | $2.1K | 0.8% |
| September 22 | 43¢ | 43.0% | -2.0 pts | $2.3K | 0.9% |
| September 26 | 30¢ | 30.0% | +2.0 pts | $4.2K | 1.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$259.5K has been traded on this event in total, $714 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,878 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbersome-Retailer | No | 2,878 | $461 |
| Chilly-Patriarch | Yes | 1,343 | $1.1K |
| Antique-Frame | Yes | 735 | $617 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 727 | $611 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 516 | $433 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 435 | $365 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 251 | $40 |
| Thankful-Ethernet | No | 184 | $29 |
| Unique-Dentist | Yes | 145 | $122 |
| Wicked-Flour | No | 138 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 05:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 05:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 02:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.4% | $97 |
| Oct 15, 03:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 03:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $24 |
| Oct 14, 04:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 50.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 04:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 50.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 04:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 50.0% | $31 |
| Oct 14, 03:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 29 at 84.0%. Next is September 21 at 74.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-20260916?via=bro
$259.5K in total volume, with $714 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
September 29, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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