Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 29 at 84.0% in Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — $259.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $714.
Leading outcome
September 29
84%
A 84.0% price implies roughly a 84-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +4.0 pts7D +3.0 pts30D +16.0 pts
September 2984.0%
September 2174.0%
Bid
82¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since September 17, 2026: 22.0% – 87.5% · Opened at 38.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
Category
Yemen, Houthis, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET
Total volume
$259.5K
Volume (24h)
$714
Liquidity
$861
Markets
10
Leading outcome
September 29 — 84.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, September 29, is priced at 84.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +16.0 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, September 29 has traded between 22.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 84.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202678.0%
Oct 16, 202675.0%
Oct 18, 202680.0%
Oct 19, 202676.0%
Oct 20, 202673.0%
Oct 23, 202680.0%
Oct 24, 202684.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

September 29 is favored at 84.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
September 2984¢84.0%+4.0 pts$9.8K3.8%
September 2174¢74.0%+4.5 pts$28.4K11.0%
September 2473¢73.0%+13.5 pts$40.2K15.5%
September 3060¢60.2%-1.1 pts$41.3K15.9%
September 2860¢60.0%-3.0 pts$39.0K15.0%
September 2353¢53.0%+2.5 pts$11.0K4.3%
September 2752¢52.5%+0.5 pts$13.9K5.3%
September 2545¢45.0%—$2.1K0.8%
September 2243¢43.0%-2.0 pts$2.3K0.9%
September 2630¢30.0%+2.0 pts$4.2K1.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$259.5K has been traded on this event in total, $714 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,878 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cumbersome-RetailerNo2,878$461
Chilly-PatriarchYes1,343$1.1K
Antique-FrameYes735$617
Flamboyant-WarmingYes727$611
Charming-GrapeYes516$433
Turbulent-Decline-RouterYes435$365
Belated-GlueNo251$40
Thankful-EthernetNo184$29
Unique-DentistYes145$122
Wicked-FlourNo138$22

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $149 at 85.0%BUY Yes — $128 at 78.0%BUY Yes — $119 at 84.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 08:37 AM ETYesSELL23.0%$0
Oct 19, 05:43 AM ETYesBUY89.0%$1
Oct 19, 05:43 AM ETYesBUY89.0%$4
Oct 19, 02:23 AM ETYesBUY74.4%$97
Oct 15, 03:45 AM ETYesBUY99.0%$1
Oct 15, 03:45 AM ETYesBUY80.0%$24
Oct 14, 04:01 AM ETYesSELL50.0%$1
Oct 14, 04:01 AM ETYesSELL50.0%$1
Oct 14, 04:01 AM ETYesSELL50.0%$31
Oct 14, 03:03 AM ETNoBUY25.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 29 at 84.0%. Next is September 21 at 74.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-20260916?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...??

$259.5K in total volume, with $714 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.

When does Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

September 29, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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