As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 63.5% in FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...? — $216.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 63.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +8.0 pts.
Since August 19, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 55.5% and 72.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 63.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 64¢ | 63.5% | — | $164.6K | 75.9% |
| September 30, 2027 | 26¢ | 26.5% | -3.5 pts | $17.5K | 8.1% |
| June 30, 2027 | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $34.7K | 16.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$216.7K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. Differences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 15,000 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vapid-Validate | Yes | 15,000 | $9.5K |
| Parallel-Steamroller | No | 8,378 | $3.1K |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 2,506 | $915 |
| Lean-Attraction | No | 1,111 | $406 |
| Indelible-Dhow | Yes | 1,000 | $635 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 900 | $328 |
| 0x4e84ce15… | No | 723 | $264 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 600 | $219 |
| Cool-Pattypan | No | 579 | $211 |
| Blue-Bend | Yes | 423 | $269 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $630 |
| Oct 24, 11:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $165 |
| Oct 24, 11:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $94 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 10:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 10:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 63.5%. Next is September 30, 2027 at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027?via=bro
$216.7K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 63.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.