Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 63.5% in FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...? — $216.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.0K.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
64%
A 63.5% price implies roughly a 64-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −3.0 pts30D +8.0 pts
December 31, 202763.5%
September 30, 202726.5%
Bid
63¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 19, 2026: 55.5% – 72.5% · Opened at 72.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
Category
FDA, Tech, Cancer, Moderna, Science, vaccine
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$216.7K
Volume (24h)
$2.0K
Liquidity
$26.5K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 63.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 63.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +8.0 pts.

Since August 19, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 55.5% and 72.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 63.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202666.5%
Oct 17, 202666.5%
Oct 18, 202666.5%
Oct 19, 202666.5%
Oct 20, 202666.5%
Oct 22, 202664.5%
Oct 23, 202663.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 63.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202764¢63.5%—$164.6K75.9%
September 30, 202726¢26.5%-3.5 pts$17.5K8.1%
June 30, 202714¢13.5%—$34.7K16.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$216.7K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. Differences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 15,000 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Vapid-ValidateYes15,000$9.5K
Parallel-SteamrollerNo8,378$3.1K
Unlined-PoleNo2,506$915
Lean-AttractionNo1,111$406
Indelible-DhowYes1,000$635
Awesome-AvailabilityNo900$328
0x4e84ce15…No723$264
Skeletal-LiverNo600$219
Cool-PattypanNo579$211
Blue-BendYes423$269

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.2K at 30.0%SELL Yes — $630 at 63.0%BUY No — $411 at 37.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:27 PM ETNoBUY37.0%$18
Oct 24, 04:07 PM ETNoSELL36.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:29 PM ETYesSELL63.0%$6
Oct 24, 12:29 PM ETYesSELL63.0%$630
Oct 24, 11:19 AM ETNoBUY37.0%$165
Oct 24, 11:19 AM ETYesSELL63.0%$94
Oct 23, 10:18 PM ETYesSELL25.0%$6
Oct 23, 10:16 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$2
Oct 23, 10:16 PM ETNoBUY74.0%$22
Oct 23, 10:16 PM ETNoSELL70.0%$0

Related markets

More FDA

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027? 76.5% · 24H VOL $9.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 63.5%. Next is September 30, 2027 at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/skin-cancer-vaccine-fda-approved-by-december-31-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...??

$216.7K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 63.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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