As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price >$8,000 at 34.0% in What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026? — $49.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, >$8,000, is priced at 34.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts; past week: -4.0 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since January 07, 2026, >$8,000 has traded between 4.5% and 50.5%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 38.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 39.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.5% |
>$8,000 is favored at 34.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >$8,000 | 34¢ | 34.0% | -4.5 pts | $7.6K | 15.2% |
| $7,500-$8,000 | 25¢ | 25.0% | +3.0 pts | $4.8K | 9.7% |
| $7,000-$7,500 | 23¢ | 23.0% | -4.0 pts | $3.4K | 6.8% |
| $6,500-$7,000 | 14¢ | 14.5% | +0.5 pts | $5.3K | 10.6% |
| $6,000-$6,500 | 12¢ | 12.0% | -6.5 pts | $3.0K | 6.1% |
| <$6,000 | 6¢ | 6.3% | -0.9 pts | $25.7K | 51.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$49.8K has been traded on this event in total, $194 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 04:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,631 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimpled-Foal | Yes | 1,631 | $554 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,484 | $980 |
| Ultimate-Sprat | No | 570 | $376 |
| Heavy-Gentleman | No | 490 | $323 |
| Unsightly-Puma | Yes | 340 | $116 |
| Feminine-Sir | Yes | 315 | $107 |
| Sympathetic-Count | Yes | 280 | $95 |
| Instructive-Pagoda | No | 249 | $164 |
| 0x5e9ffe74… | Yes | 222 | $75 |
| Remarkable-Burst | Yes | 200 | $68 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.6% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 09:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 06:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.5% | $95 |
| Oct 21, 07:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 07:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 07:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 09:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 09:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 50.6% | $21 |
| Oct 16, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 12:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is >$8,000 at 34.0%. Next is $7,500-$8,000 at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spx-close-dec-2026?via=bro
$49.8K in total volume, with $194 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 04:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history.
>$8,000, priced at 34.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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