As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Up at 52.0% in S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26? — $1.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Up, is priced at 52.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Up has traded between 51.5% and 52.5%. It opened at 52.5% and last traded at 51.5%.
Up is favored at 52.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 52¢ | 52.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.1K | 100.0% |
| Down | 48¢ | 48.0% | +1.5 pts | $1.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.1K has been traded on this event in total, $783 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 243 shares of Up.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frail-Item | Up | 243 | $126 |
| Fumbling-Rethinking | Up | 229 | $119 |
| Splendid-Polo-Modeling | Down | 200 | $96 |
| Winged-Researcher | Down | 126 | $61 |
| Busy-Proctor-Spool | Down | 99 | $48 |
| Green-Grandparent-Ordination | Down | 63 | $30 |
| Unpleasant-Distinction | Up | 61 | $32 |
| Exhausted-Energy | Up | 55 | $29 |
| Jealous-Vitro | Up | 40 | $21 |
| Glistening-Sinuosity | Down | 25 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:56 PM ET | Down | BUY | 48.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:44 PM ET | Up | SELL | 50.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 PM ET | Down | SELL | 47.5% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Up | BUY | 52.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Up | BUY | 52.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:32 PM ET | Down | SELL | 47.5% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:29 PM ET | Down | BUY | 49.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:25 PM ET | Up | SELL | 50.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:03 PM ET | Up | SELL | 49.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:58 PM ET | Up | SELL | 49.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Up at 52.0%. Next is Down at 48.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-26-2026?via=bro
$1.1K in total volume, with $783 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 04:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
Up, priced at 52.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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